It is increasingly clear the global economy is slowing down. And a few months ago the epicenter for that slowdown was Turkey. The Turkish Lira melted down as fears over its massive pile of corporate debt, most of it denominated in dollars, began selling off. And that had contagion effects into Europe since yield-starved banks … Continue reading Revisiting Turkey’s Debt Problem
I have a new 23 minute market report up on Patron for subscribers going over what's happening later today with respect to the vote of No-Confidence against Theresa May over her bungling Brexit. I also cover the happenings in gold, silver, the Dow and the USDX to give you a picture of where I think … Continue reading Private Blog – To Brexit or Not to Brexit
So Angela Merkel is out as leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). In comes Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Merkel's close ally who won the party's support with a very narrow victory over more conservative Friedrich Merz. The goal , as always in Europe, was to maintain the status quo politically. Change needed to change nothing. Brexit negotiations … Continue reading Meet the New Merkel, Same as the Old Merkel
"There is no civility, there is only politics"— Senator Palpatine, The Phantom Menace (Subscribe to the newsletter here)I've talked about breaches of trust before. Facebook is losing users because of their abuse. So will Google. But, a bigger breach of public trust is occurring politically that will have more more devastating effects on society. Leaders … Continue reading December Issue Gold Goats ‘n Guns Newsletter Released
With oil prices in free fall and the dawning realization that Great Reflation trade of 2017 is over, OPEC needed to do something drastic to remind everyone how important they are. Moreover, with Qatar quitting the cartel last week it was then doubly necessary for OPEC to make the markets stand up and remember them. … Continue reading OPEC Cuts Deep to Save Cartel
Donald Trump just jumped the shark calling himself, "Mr. Tariff." He believes a trade deficit is akin to stealing the wealth of a nation. It isn't. Under normal conditions a trade deficit is simply a reflection of the difference in comparative advantage of one country's workers over anothers. And the value of the currency is … Continue reading Mr. Tariff Ups the Ante on China
With the markets waking up to the fact that Trump is truly economically illiterate when it comes to tariffs and trade we're seeing a major move in risk-off assets. I have a new Private Blog up for Patrons discussing this. You can access the Private Blog by pledging a minimum of $4/month at my Patreon.
UPDATE: Now stocks are selling off and the 2/10 spread is less than 10 basis points. Gold, however, refuses to sell off while the euro pulls back versus the dollar. Mike Shedlock over at Mishtalk noted yesterday that there have been a couple of troubling inversions in the U.S. yield curve recently. They happened in … Continue reading Recession Incoming or Something Worse? 2/10 Spread Collapses