Moving Forward, Iran Outflanks the U.S. in Iraq and Beyond

Iran has successfully navigated the first phase of its resistance to U.S. sanctions pressure. The U.S. State Department has admitted it's goal of reducing Iran's oil exports to zero is not feasible. The goal now is a 25% drop to 800,000 barrel per day. And that is no joke. It's a big drop from where … Continue reading Moving Forward, Iran Outflanks the U.S. in Iraq and Beyond

The Slippage Continues – India Resists Trump On Everything

With the U.S.'s attempt at regime change in Venezuela going nowhere fast it's becoming increasingly obvious that major vassals allies aren't scared of the consequences of defying us. India, in particular, has been quite clear in its opposition to Trump's edicts on who they can and cannot trade with. And with Prime Minister Narendra Modi … Continue reading The Slippage Continues – India Resists Trump On Everything

Trump Folds on Trade War With China

Over the weekend, fifteen minutes before U.S. equity futures markets opened, President Trump extended the trade talks between the U.S. and China. No one should be shocked by this.  Because China isn’t the main problem.  We are.  Why?  Keep reading. Trump has rapidly become the Appeaser-in-Chief. Everyone on the other side of the negotiating table … Continue reading Trump Folds on Trade War With China

Russia’s Exports Continue to Defy Sanctions

Russia is winning its war of attrition against aggressive U.S. sanctions policy. Diplomatically, Russia is winning on all fronts, finding positive solutions through its abundant energy reserves to open gaps in relationships hat have been frozen in geopolitical amber for two generations. The latest balance of trade data from Rosstat tells the tale. Russia continues … Continue reading Russia’s Exports Continue to Defy Sanctions

Revisiting Turkey’s Debt Problem

It is increasingly clear the global economy is slowing down.  And a few months ago the epicenter for that slowdown was Turkey.  The Turkish Lira melted down as fears over its massive pile of corporate debt, most of it denominated in dollars, began selling off.  And that had contagion effects into Europe since yield-starved banks … Continue reading Revisiting Turkey’s Debt Problem

Mr. Tariff Ups the Ante on China

Donald Trump just jumped the shark calling himself, "Mr. Tariff."  He believes a trade deficit is akin to stealing the wealth of a nation.  It isn't. Under normal conditions a trade deficit is simply a reflection of the difference in comparative advantage of one country's workers over anothers.  And the value of the currency is … Continue reading Mr. Tariff Ups the Ante on China

Russia Raises Rates to Raise Stability

2018 has not been kind to the Russian Ruble.  Despite a improving macroeconomic statistics and a widening positive balance of trade the Ruble has lost more than 10% versus the dollar so far this year. So, the recent decision by the Bank of Russia to surprise everyone and raise interest rates 0.25% seems like a … Continue reading Russia Raises Rates to Raise Stability

Turkey is Getting off the U.S. Reservation

This year's BRICS Summit was a big show.  No question.  The main event was provided by Turkish President cum Dictator Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan wants to a a "T" to the acronym, making them the BRICTS. Erdogan also made it very clear Turkey's shift away from the West will proceed faster if the bullying and … Continue reading Turkey is Getting off the U.S. Reservation