“Energy makes energy anyhow
So spend yourself and get rich right now”
— Marillion “Rich”
This day has been a long time coming. From the moment, more than a decade ago, when it was finally admitted that Europe was destined to be an energy importer, we were going to see the climax of the showdown between the West and Russia.
Europe as energy importer always meant that time was on Russia’s side. All it had to do was draw the conflict out long enough, survive long enough, to force Europe into submission. Russia has the energy Europe needs, no one else can supply it, therefore the final decision will be to accept this fate.
No amount of financial wizardry, pathetic virtue signaling about Climate Change, malinvestment into inefficient and unsustainable ‘renewables,’ or military threats would ultimately change the outcome of this story.
Output off the North Slope has fallen off and Groningen’s gas fields are drying up faster than Hillary’s va-jay-jay with each twist of John Durham’s investigation into RussiaGate.
Every gambit to secure energy from Ukraine (Donbass coal, gas fields in the Sea of Azov) and the Middle East (Syria, EastMed Pipeline, Iran) have also failed.
This is the basic problem the EU faces in its quest for political hegemony. How does it get around this basic fact without fomenting 1) a political crisis at home and 2) a war with Russia and the rest of the Global South who support her, it cannot win?
Force Majeure
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, a conflict created by EU complicity in NATO’s long-standing war on Russia, the EU has tried to play the victim of US/UK aggressiveness while happily going along with it for their own purposes.
That purpose is to advance their agenda of erecting a total surveillance state under the guise of a radical response to Climate Change. Their problem is they have no viable replacement for Russian energy, be it oil, coal or gas, that is capable of sustaining them in the interim.
All of their refusals were met with Russian intransigence. After gleefully going along with the theft of Russian foreign exchange reserves, as well as forcing the abandonment of Russian state assets like seizing Gazprom’s subsidiary in Germany, Europe still tried to say Russia had no legal right change the terms of payment for Russian energy.
It was hilarious to watch as EU sycophants tried to argue Russia had no legal right to claim to force majeure after the EU prohibited Gazprom from spending the euros they would be paid for its gas.
The Russian government responded with a demand for payment for all exports to legally-defined ‘unfriendly countries’ in either gold or Russian rubles. And the howls were heard all around the world.
Even though acts of war, including sanctions, are a typical clause in all Gazprom supply contracts:
So, after a couple of weeks of denying reality, of playing to the moral high ground about punishing Vladimir Putin the butcher of Bucha, the EU as always caved to reality.
Ruble Roulette
The EU finally figured out a way to avoid US sanctions to buy Russian energy in rubles.
Moscow has warned Europe it risks having gas supplies cut unless it pays in roubles. In March it issued a decree proposing that energy buyers open accounts at Gazprombank to make payments in euros or dollars, which would then be converted to rubles.
The Commission said earlier this month that the decree risked breaching EU sanctions since it would put the effective completion of the purchase – once the payments are converted to rubles – into the hands of the Russian authorities.
In an advisory document sent to member states on Thursday, however, the Commission said Moscow’s proposal does not necessarily prevent a payment process that would comply with EU sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine conflict.
This is their way out. As always, the EU will just define things however they need to in order to save face, while ultimately capitulating when forced to show their hole cards.
We watched this same pathetic display for more than three years over Brexit. And if not for a complicit, nee treasonous performance by Former Prime Minister Theresa May, Brexit negotiations would have been finalized in around six months.
All she had to do was set terms and walk away from these people. All she had to do was what Putin just did.
This isn’t to say Putin’s handling of this growing crisis has been perfect. His biggest fault as Russia’s leader has been his continued underestimating the duplicity and sheer evil emanating from the European Commission.
However, I also feel Putin knew that Russia’s best strategy was to be the best neighbor it could be despite the obvious provocations. It cost him politically for years. This is why he tried so hard for so long to find common ground with these folks, attempting where he could to make allies and create political leverage.
This is why Putin has refused to shut off the gas to the EU, even while they dragged their feet on paying in rubles. He always knew where this would end up, and if you asked the Eurocrats in Brussels quietly, so did they.
The political costs to Brussels for turning off the gas would be too high a price for them to pay.
This issue has caused fracturing in German’s fragile ruling coalition. It has harmed France’s Emmanuel Macron’s re-election chances in France. It will cost Mario Draghi his government next year. Of course, by then Draghi’s destruction of Italy as a country will be nearly complete. One can only hope the Italians find their voice between now and then.
Hungry, Hungary Hypocrites
Putin’s most obvious victory was in Hungary, where Viktor Orban just won a major election. Orban has already leveraged that victory into frustrating the EU’s plans to sever energy ties with Russia and steadfastly refusing to up the military pressure on Russia, which I talked about on the eve of the election.
For this reason Hungary will be in the EU’s crosshairs going forward. It will be marginalized, if not kicked out eventually, over these issues. There are ideologues at the helm in Brussels and they will not be stopped in their quest to bring Europe to its knees under their control.
If Hungary say no to this, they will be punished for it. But punishing Hungary at this point is like trying to punish Russia. It’s actually a blessing for them.
For Hungary, once it is freed from the EU, will be the destination for foreign capital in a way that it is cannot be today. These are Orban’s hole cards, and they are powerful ones. In the meantime, he will stay in the EU to be a thorn in their side until they get rid of him.
The biggest embarrassment for Brussels would be for Hungary to thrive outside of the EU framework, the same fear that was on the table during Brexit negotiations. The difference, of course, is that the UK political establishment is all in on the Brussels agenda, it’s the people outside of London who aren’t.
Hungarians just proved that Orban doesn’t have that problem.
So, the benefits of ending its future relationship with the EU will be much more immediately apparent, when it happens.
European Unionicide
No matter what happens in the long run, however, the reality is that a new Europe is on the horizon. And it isn’t a pretty sight. The EU will, at best, muddle through without a couple of current pieces — Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania — and at worst break back apart as the common currency experiment reaches an ignominious end broken on the shores of a new energy-based reserve standard which it simply cannot compete against.
Just like Ukraine is quickly being carved up by Russia into a smaller pieces, so too will Europe balkanize over the EU’s failures to secure a reliable energy future for its people.
Russia’s demands that Europe pay for Russian exports through the unsanctioned Gazprombank, who will process the currency conversion (at the importer’s expense) into rubles, now give it the upper hand in all future trade dealings with the EU.
And since the ruble is now loosely tied to physical gold this means the possibility of the euro ever challenging the US dollar as a reserve currency is now officially over. That fate was sealed with Draghi’s move to negative interest rates back in 2014, turning it into the ultimate carry currency.
That status is quickly unwinding to the detriment of the Japanese Yen which is now grabbing the headlines caught in the middle between the war between the Fed and the ECB.
At the same time, the Eurodollar system has come under existential threat thanks to the coming end of LIBOR blunting the desires of a hawkish Fed. Because of this, the ECB is trapped in a maze where the exits have all been blocked off.
There is no reason now for anyone to hold euros or convert euros into European sovereign debt. The Russians are no longer going to support the eurodollar market by recycling its trade surplus into the European banking system, exactly as was predicted when the EU followed the US by seizing Russia’s foreign exchange reserves.
Who in their right mind would hold euros on your balance sheet beyond what you need to pay for goods is a losing proposition if Ursula Von der Leyen has deemed you an Untermensch?
Gazprombank will simply flip those euros into physical gold and add them to the country’s balance sheet, making it even stronger. This will ensure that the euro itself becomes a pariah currency and force the ECB to continue the path towards hyperinflation.
The birth of a new Europe is one where the currency risk is now all on the importer of commodities, not the exporter of commodities. I’ve been saying for years that Europe always thought that its huge share of Russian energy exports would give it monopsony power over Russia. That, they thought, without Europe as a buyer, Russia would be at their mercy.
In a hyper-financialized world, that assumption had always held true. But, in a new monetary regime, where the world is beyond debt saturation, the bills are due and there’s no more road to kick the can down, it simply isn’t true anymore.
By Russia tying the ruble to gold and both the US and EU weaponizing offshore dollar markets, that misperception of buying power is being laid bare. Sure, the EU has euros to offer but it does so into the revaluation of commodities versus fiat currencies which have ever-shrinking use cases.
This only feeds the downward spiral of the euro and the eurodollar system into the vortex that is physical gold and the demand for commodities on which all of its value is derived.
The mouse in Hungary has roared loud enough to finally get the apparatchiks in Brussels to listen to the tune the Russian bear has been quietly humming to itself for years.
Join my Patreon if you like humming tunes
BTC: 3GSkAe8PhENyMWQb7orjtnJK9VX8mMf7Zf
BCH: qq9pvwq26d8fjfk0f6k5mmnn09vzkmeh3sffxd6ryt
DCR: DsV2x4kJ4gWCPSpHmS4czbLz2fJNqms78oE
LTC: MWWdCHbMmn1yuyMSZX55ENJnQo8DXCFg5k
DASH: XjWQKXJuxYzaNV6WMC4zhuQ43uBw8mN4Va
WAVES: 3PF58yzAghxPJad5rM44ZpH5fUZJug4kBSa
ETH: 0x1dd2e6cddb02e3839700b33e9dd45859344c9edc
DGB: SXygreEdaAWESbgW6mG15dgfH6qVUE5FSE
ARRR: zs132w864erce9x8lmcmlnv8vw05p646kp0uxy29q82ak4n9504at0sut3eu3kmscn5yqhtje2yjyv
Conjuring up Hillary’s va-jay-jay made me sick in the mouth but otherwise an excellent piece Tom.
Tom this is all happening in real-time. The Zerohedge article on Israel’s foreign currency rebalance is how the world is going to trade this change.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/israel-dumps-dollar-chinas-renminbi
The article makes the mistake on focusing on the dollar and yuan positions, but the real news was the Euro levels. It went from 30% to 20% (50% move). Moves like that from other countries will cause the Euro debt situation to break very quickly.
Mario.
Excellent as always! Thank you Tom.
An article published on Zero Hedge today said that Ukraine was lobbying its western ‘allies’ to shut off Nordstream I and force Russia to sell Europe gas through Ukraine.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ukraine-pushes-rerouting-nord-stream-1-flows
Doing this would actually benefit Russia now that Nordstream II is gone. Whatever rump state remains of Ukraine would also benefit from this at the expense of Germany and NATO, especially if the transition gas flowed into Hungary. It would help pacify western Ukraine and thwart most any threat of NATO trying to arm an insurgency or bring whatever is left into the EU or NATO. And the sooner Putin says ‘good idea’, the sooner Ukrainian soldiers will surrender.
Relax…King Tom rules….!
Anyroad
Germanys car bosses will decide ”which way will the Grey cat jumps?”
What happens to dollar vs. euro?
Tom, been following you for a while now and respect your opinions. But I think there’s something you’re oversimplifying. I disagree with your US globalists = Brussels line. I think the original (misguided) intention behind the euro was precisely to create an economy that could compete with US hegemony, anchored by Germany’s industrial strength and trade surplus.
I don’t buy the idea that the British political establishment is in on the Brussels agenda. On the contrary, for various cultural reasons, the only course of action that establishment could see post Brexit was to further increase its subservience to the US. Which gets us to where we are today, with the Brits acting as cheerleaders for what is clearly a US strategy in this war.
And it looks to me that part of the economic ramifications of that strategy is to use energy to emasculate Germany as an industrial power. Pro-Atlantic commentators like Wolfgang Munchau have been openly calling for Germany to allow its industrial base to go to the wall and embrace the future as a UK-style services-only economy. Scholz is increasingly looking like a candidate for regime change himself, for dragging his heels on that.
So yeah, Europe is f*cked. The diverging interests of the Euro states are coming into the open. Is a globalist France under Macron (who can only win) seizing the chance to assert its dominance over a weakened Germany? Looks to me that a destabilized Western Europe is also part of the Anglo strategy in this crazy war…
Castrating Germany by gutting their industrial power has always been the game plan of the Anglo-US empire. They know if Germany slides into the Belt-Road sphere it’s game over for them permanently. So they must be destroyed and the sanctions/war with Russia will make that happen.
The sanction program benefits North America – since unlike Europe, we are rich in resources, especially in Oil & Gas. So an energy based currency a la Putin might not be a big problem for us, and actually extend the Petro-dollar regime, albeit in a slightly different form.
Once the Euro is destroyed and the continental banks go up in a derivative supernova – capital will flow to the US and prop up their house of cards for a while longer. I think the Davos agenda is really about trying to establish hegemony over the Anglo-US sphere to protect their banks / power.
Personally I don’t understand how much sway the Schwabians have in the US. We know they have de-facto control Canada’s political establishment and the Democrats and a good chunk of the deep state in the US, but is that enough? I sense a major push back against their power grab and I believe they can be defeated here but it will be ugly and nothing is guaranteed.
You think that because the Davosian spokesmen are European, the Davosians care about EU energy supplies? No – Europe has been scheduled for demolition, just like America, and JPMorgan.
Davosians are scheduling these controlled demolitions because they care about only one thing – establishing global governance and global currency, and being in the best seats.
As a result of your premises being wrong, you haven’t accepted that the destruction of America, Europe, JPMorgan is all a prerequisite. It’s why Obama, Carney, Merkel, Draghi and Dimon were installed.
This fight over energy is not the Great Game (despite many participants and analysts still believing that it is) – it’s part of a controlled demolition of the existing global political and monetary order.
P.S – I believe Macron is a Davosian, so will lose tomorrow. Leaving one more patsy at the helm of the sinking SS Europe. I think he hopes to get the European seat at the Global Council.
Ivor,
You continue to state my premises are wrong when I’ve said exactly what you just said, that the destruction of the West is a prerequisite. We just draw different conclusions because I’m not economically illiterate.
No tom you might have thought you said what he said, but he had the balls to say it like it is.
If you think these people are all powerful, then kill yourself now, b/c there is no hope for humanity and you’re in their sights. This is why Ivor is wrong.
Period.
And moreover, I’m literally tired of Ivor being so convinced of his rightness that he spends his days telling me I’m wrong rather than building his own audience and making his case publicly.
Clearly, we’re now dealing with barnacles.
Hi Tom,
Glen Greenwald had a character/critic like this, who would just not give up. Glen’s solution was to invite him on his podcast: “A Critic Answers My Invitation to Engage: Ideology, Fox/Tucker, and Have I Changed?”.
Listen yourself to to see the result. (hehe)
Ivor is wrong because these people really aren’t that clever, and more importantly central planning can’t work. All of these dystopian novelists over the decades were at heart collectivists, and couldn’t see that there is no such thing as competent technocrats nor is there a way in reality to make any of it work. That’s why the Brazil movie was so great. Technocracy or any kind of collectivism can’t work, regardless of whether the idea itself at its core is evil.
This is the key problem – you seemingly believe that a technogulag would be a planet killer. So you just whistle past the graveyard hoping it will never become operational.
Whereas I believe that the technogulag will be survivable, and your point that cartels are meta-stable seems to support me – once a technogulag is up and running, won’t exploitable Davosian in-fighting develop as they bicker over ownership of its levers?
I am capable of entertaining the possibility that the Davosians might have won this one, so believe that even though we hope the technogulag will never be built, it would still be wise to examine its plans to see if we can identify an exhaust port.
For that, we need someone who understands Davosian engineering.
The reason I come here is not because I’m bored or vindictive – it’s because I think you understand Davosian engineering.
I’ve heard your view that the Davosian will never get their technogulag off the ground. Can you challenge your own assumption long enough to tell me how to remain ungovernable IF THEY DO?
No. Cartels never get to this stage Ivor. Literally you do not understand enlightened self interest and the power to just fucking say no.
By the way… get out of Europe and you’ll see just how not far along their techogulag is.
It’s certainly true that their technogulag is far more advanced in Europe than elsewhere, but how comprehensive does it need to become before the rest of the world will have to slowly follow suit?
I suspect getting the D10 countries on board would be enough, and half of them are in Europe.
And cartels can last a long time – OPEC and the Mafia are good examples, surely? They got up and running but as you say they are only meta-stable and the individual interests of their participants always cause their cohesion/influence to wax and wane.
And that’s how I think the technogulag would develop, that’s all. I can certainly see there being lots of in-fighting, and that should be exploitable.
I get that saying no is the answer, which is why I’m asking how to do that. How to remain ungovernable within a technogulag?
It’s not a trick question – when you need a digital ID to access streaming services and want to retain the ability to say no………..amass a DVD collection?
A lot. I just don’t think Europeans recognize just how fucking big the world is or how hard it is to govern people that spread out when they no longer consent to the governance.
I’m dead serious that so many bad ideas about human governance are rooted in this solipsism. It’s what gives wind to collectivist nonsense of all stripes.
It’s time for Europe to pay for its sins of colonialism, sadly. Because if y’all think that we’re going along with you to hell because of your bad imprinting you are about to be disabused of this notion.
I know this sounds harsh but it is the truth. Europe is the sick man of the world, the weakest bloc with the fewest friends. But it your fault. You chose this. We didn’t. China Iran Russia and India are not choosing it. They may choose different versions of the technogulag, but they will be temporary measures at best. China will not maintain the system they have today and stay relevant.
Man… Tom, you come over as a smart guy and have good ideas, but sometimes you’ve got to come down off your high horse and get real.
Europe has to pay for the sins of colonialism? And you’re writing from a country whose entire economy was founded on the cheap real estate resulting from one of the biggest land-grabs in history, and the dispossession of an indigenous people? And you’re giving lessons in fucking anti-colonialism? Jesus Christ!
I’m not picking a fight, it just pains me to see a smart guy falling for such stupid cheap shots. No one washes whiter than white here, we’re all in the same mess, and if we start sniping at each other because of some bullshit perceived superiority complex, we’re going to end up like the Russians and Ukrainians…
Oh, I’m soooo sorry that I offended your sensibilities here but let’s think for one second what the US birthed from….? A colonialist power.
The whole idea of America came from an anti-colonialist mindset, which over time was betrayed. But let’s not go into any kind of revisionist history here about Europe’s money funding two World Wars from offshore banks, i.e. US banks, and getting the US to fight those wars they themselves started with their own terrible ideas, mistakes and old enmities.
I am picking a fight here. I’m happy to go over the US’s sins. It’s an integral part of this blog’s ethos, but I will not stand by and let feckless Eurotrash destroy the world’s best experiment in sovereignty so that they can regain their former glory.
We’re being colonized again, FFS. What the fuck do you think the O’Biden Regime is?
The epitome of US brilliance or a bunch of Eurotrash commie vandals running around burning the place down?
That’s what I see.
Oh, so, our “land grab” didn’t come from our uniquely European heritage or anything? Really? You think American Exceptionalism isn’t an outgrowth of European Arrogance?
Fuck off.
The real fight today is between Europe and the rest of the world. They want their colonies back and they are willing to burn the world down to get it.
This is nothing new from me. I’ve been saying it in these terms for five years now. And I’ve been right all the way down the line.
Ivor’s nihilism is borne of his being stuck in the rotting corpse of Europe and he’s projecting that fear of technogulag onto the world. Stop giving up, accept your sins and do something about it.
That’s what I’ve already done. I’ve accepted the sins of the US and desperately want to fix things, but it can’t be fixed until we stop letting fucking Europe off the hook for their crimes against all of us.
I think Tom is exactly right, but not because of colonialism. Europe is a cesspool, and it’s that way because of most Europeans not just some elite cabal. These are the most disgusting people I’ve ever been around in my entire life. Stupid, cowards, inconsiderate, and all the while thinking way too highly of themselves imagining how enlightened and intelligent they are. A continent shitpile, like one big San Francisco. And to think, real civilization — philosophy, mathematics, science, engineering, art — originated from this place. The peak of human achievement. And what do they have now to show for it, a few thousand years later? How could such great people sunk to such levels of dogshit?
Don’t sweat it, my sensibilities are waaay out of range of the internet
This is a really great essay. I always wondered when the second shoe was going to drop over this:
Obama: Some jobs ‘are just not going to come back’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKpso3vhZtw
What Obama never concluded with (or maybe even realized) was that without a real manufacturing base or raw materials export economy the United States’ and Europe’s ability to shape world governance was not coming back either.
This was so obvious to me back then when I heard it and I was livid at both the arrogance and ignorance.
If that was the plan all along, they ought to just sign on Putin’s dotted line and be done with it, as they achieved everything they were aiming at… but with all of the goings on in the Ukraine, and all of the false flags, I have really come to the conclusion that Obama and the rest of them thought they would come out on top by simply suspending the laws of reality?
Someone needs to go into the CIA and State Department (Biden is too far gone) and give an analogous talk: : “Your influence over how the world develops isn’t coming back and there is no magic wand you can wave (false flag you can engineer) to make it so. So learn to code or pickup a shovel.”
Their dream is controlled demolition – followed by the rise of digital everything and trans human machine/man fusion, but is it realistic? As the wise philosopher Mike Tyson said – ‘Everyone has a plan until you get punched in the mouth’. I tend to believe their arrogance will be their downfall. Just look how badly they are doing in East Ukraine – 100k men dug in prepping against Donbass for 8 years are getting destroyed as we speak.
Btw – Poland reportedly moving assets towards Kaliningrad. Demolition is guaranteed, but control of the outcome is not.
This seems pretty upbeat Tom. Nothing wrong with that. We are at an extremely unstable fault line. Not really sure which side to jump to. Was verbal jousting with a buddy last night. He’s ok but lacks historical perspective. Told him how incredibly dangerous the news about the Russian ship is and that it was painted by the US. For argument’s sake let’s roll with it. I believe Russia shot down one of our coveted U2 spy planes around the time of the Cuban Missile crisis. I don’t think the public was queued into many years later. Some things are better left unsaid and that’s when we had a somewhat responsible media. That is certainly no longer the case. I think Russia test fired an ICBM the other day. Hopefully that is the last of their messages. For those living in a metropolitan area you should get you bug out bag ready.
Let me see if I got this straight…Russia/Gazprom delivered the nat gas. The EU decides that they don’t have to pay for it because they want to declare war on Russia via Ukraine. The EU hands Russia a rotten onion, in the form of Euros that they declare can’t be spent.
I’m dripping with sarcasm already as I type. The EU needs to learn how to FU…and I don’t mean Felix Unger.
I appreciate Tom very much… but… sorry… I read IvanDeacon´s views also with much interest. Yes… I tend to think that this DeepState – or Davos – crowd is very very apt. I can´t believe they make stupid mistakes. So I have to HOPE that Tom is right… that I simply lack the necessary insight to see why Davos will fail… my own view is that… they are on the winning track since thousands of years.
For all those who think everything is scripted including myself at times. Whatever the plan is there is not doubt a road map to get there. That being said how many times have you planned something and it went to shit? Happens a lot on my end. Whenever plans fall through that creates an opportunity for people who want to exploit it. So keep your eyes open and head on a swivel.
Tom, what exactly does this mean?
In March it issued a decree proposing that energy buyers open accounts at Gazprombank to make payments in euros or dollars, which would then be converted to rubles.
The EU is not exchanging euros for rubles and then paying in rubles. They are paying in euros. Does ‘convert’ mean that Gazprombank then buys rubles for euros on the foreign exchanges? If Gazprombank just throws the euros in the garbage, and creates rubles (from the CBR), how does that help the exchange rate? In fact, what does it mean? If this is not what happens, please explain to me what does.
I actually recommended this in some comments (not here) well before Russia announced this, but I thought they would do the straightforward thing, get rubles for euros on the FX. The problem, I thought, would be if there were anywhere near enough rubles out there.
This scheme (whatever it is) may protect Russia from theft, but to me it is NOT paying for gas with rubles.
Of course Europe had an easy solution, but another insane ideology prevents it. That is, nuclear power. I’ve been saying this for about 30 years (starting with letters to C&E News). I’ve lost interest in the debate now, since it was clear nothing was happening fast.
Canada and Australia have vast amounts of uranium. And there is certainly much more out there in the World, since we’ve barely started to look compared to say, oil and gas.
In the 70’s France built out their nuclear facilities in about 20 years. 85% of electricity needs.
As I have stated before, currencies, nearly always referred to as money, are a proxy for energy. Now, as currencies approach their intrinsic value, the true value of energy is finally being realized.
No amount of magically created fairy dust fiat currency can create it. You either have it or you don’t.
Pity for those nations that don’t.
“All paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero.” — Voltaire.
“Modern agriculture is the use of land to convert petroleum into food.” — Prof. Albert Bartlett
It’s too late to do anything about this now but, what the hell, here it is again anyway.
Dr Albert Bartlett: Arithmetic, Population and Energy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_VpyoAXpA8
Happy hunger people.
Cheers.
H.
I think the Euro can become unstable quite quickly, (next 12 months). It’s already down 13/16% against the Rouble & Yuan since 2020 Q3. The conversion of Euros to Roubles & Gold is basically Russia wiping their backside with the Euro. Any kind of energy price shock and this dirty money is scarcely fit for the fire. Most of Europe becomes Greece doesn’t it now, and to my mind this is not a distant event horizon thing.
I assume that someone will break ranks and reintroduce a native currency, i.e.g. the French Franc, and try and join the friendly club….which means that whichever way you cut it, Macron becomes Putin’s pet Rottweiler in the kennels for potentially dangerous pooches.
Europe becomes Greece, and France, as you and Alex discussed, over time probably disaggregates into places like the Caliphate of Provence, the Basque Territory, Brittany, etc.
I’m wondering, how do you guys know how all these ugly power games work, is it that like knows alike, and so you understand, or have you been forced to study the monkey power games, slowly and painfully becoming wiser through experience. Is not to be an illiterate about like knowing likes, or is it purely a technical matter and a discipline, a matter of application of knowledge and the science involved? Do you now enjoy analysing monkey power games, feeling top monkey analyst when having it right, not being an ‘illiterate’ in these matters, or is it depressing?
It’s both depressing and necessary. It’s the old adage about writers, they can’t not do so. It’s a compulsion not and ego trip for me. Ego is something you fight as success comes to stay flexible
Tom,
I am amazed that you can do what you do, and then have the wherewithal to write about it, but I understand why. (I really relate to what you tell your daughter about her being here.)
It is like the engineer in the Chernobyl Miniseries, who has to look into the reactor core:
Chernobyl | Sitnikov looks into Reactor Core
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFTAi90ubt0
You hope against hope that you won’t find what you know you will find.
However, the compulsion leads us to peer over the edge… hoping to see a different/better reality. “
So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the….” ― F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby
——-
It is a really difficult time to do the analysis you do. I think if I were in the same position, I would be in an alcoholic stupor most of the time.
I don’t know of any other way to describe it, other than by way of that type of analogy.
Anyway, thanks for keeping the rest of us sane. It is a real privilege to be able to listen to one of your podcasts. And if I had the interest in finance, investment and Bitcoin I would be one of your loyal Patreon subscribers, but as I am far from that group, I just listen for your very astute take on geopolitics.
Again, thanks!
And all IMHO.
Thank you. The writing is itself a form of self-medication. The point of doing this is to keep from falling into that pit. It comes from a deep-seated faith in people to rise above everything in spite of the obstacles in front of us.
It’s why I write about stories, and storytelling. You’ll understand better when I publish the blog I’m currently working on.
Back to the wireless energy of Tesla plz?
It’s called blackmail now: https://imgflip.com/i/6e5r3r