Last week I wrote that Russian President Vladimir Putin rewrote the rules for the geopolitical game board. A week into his campaign to officially “demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine” it’s clear to me that Putin’s ambitions lie far beyond this stated goal.
He will, however, stick to that script until that part of the campaign is complete.
Today I want to start outlining where we go next and to do that we have to describe where we are.
Looking around the reports that are the most credible (and properly bracketing for any partisanship) we are staring at a complete, effective neutralization of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) to hold any of the ethnically-dominant areas of Ukraine.
In a post for my patrons on February 25th, responding to an excellent article by Alistair MacLeod I wrote the following:
MacLeod: Both sides probably do not know how fragile the Eurozone banking system is, with both the ECB and its national central bank shareholders already having liabilities greater than their assets. In other words, rising interest rates have broken the euro system and an economic and financial catastrophe on its eastern flank will probably trigger its collapse.
I’ve been banging my shoe on this table for 3 years now. If the US/NATO respond with some kind of guerilla war here to hang Ukraine like an albatross around Putin’s neck, as we should expect, then Europe is in big trouble financially.
Because the financial war will keep escalating as Putin responds militarily. Remember, he’s openly threatened the ‘decision makers’ here. And no amount of mealy-mouthed CIA/MI6 disinformation will deter him from action anymore.
This is always what I meant by “spooks start civil wars, militaries end them.” There is no more War for Ukraine.
I still believe that. This isn’t a war for Ukraine, it’s a war for the future of the entire world. Ukraine represents the hill both Davos and Russia have chosen to live or die on.
The Afghanistan Gambit
Davos has refused to let President Zelensky surrender because if he does then legally there is no more war to sanction Russia with. It’s not Putin’s War at that point, it is a settled conflict and terms negotiated.
At that point what’s left of Ukraine can be carved up into pieces. It’s way to early for that to occur, so you’ll see constant threats of peace talks, but that’s only to assuage the fears of the capital markets, which is where Davos has the most control over the situation.
The primary goal of the information war from the West is to push capital markets as far in its favor as possible, keeping things within the bounds of the ‘acceptable’ to avoid any short-term pain. Gold is still under it’s all-time high, which is just hilarious.
That said, in that same post I put up this map of a future Ukraine which I felt, conservatively, would be in effect by the end of this year. Events are moving far faster than that, however.
Chernihiv and Sumy are also in play, as is Lviv as a bargaining chip to Poland. As Fmr. Col. Douglas Macgregor pointed out on Fox News recently, everything east of the Dnieper River will become part of a new Novorussia, if not part of the Russian Federation.
Clearly this is Putin’s initial goal, the partitioning of Ukraine. He’s moved militarily, the EU and the rest of the West have responded financially. Their hope is to turn Ukraine into a quagmire, a la Afghanistan (per Hillary Clinton’s recent remarks), which they hope Russia will not be able to sustain after being choked off from the global economy.
The financial sanctions regime put in place so far are brutal but also full of holes wide enough for Putin to maneuver within and around because of the well understood facts of Russia’s dominance as a global supplier of life-sustaining commodities for the entire world.
This is an asymmetric war.
There isn’t much farther the West can go financially. They’ve seized Bank of Russia foreign assets, for pity’s sake. What other weapons do they really have in their arsenal which can threaten Russia with?
They have, in effect, executed their nuclear first strike against Russia. Once you’ve gone nuclear, where do you go next? Real nukes? Yes, that’s a possibility, sadly, given the people we’re talking about.
On the other hand, Russia has so far only committed the necessary troops to neutralize Ukraine. So, in this respect, big advantage Russia.
Facts on the ground are facts. Russia has taken territory it can maintain. By not targeting civilians or civilian infrastructure, Russia has put itself in a very good position to not face an insane insurgency which the West can finance in the way that it has in past conflicts.
Much of NATO’s in-country assets have been neutralized. And you know this because the propaganda and rhetoric have been so thoroughly crude, cartoonish and strident. Again, ask why the financial and informational war has been so intense?
Is it because the West thinks it’s winning or because it’s trying desperately to pivot domestic populations to solidarity after losing massive credibility during the last year with COVID-19 related lockdowns, vax passes, and the unpersoning of whole swaths of Western society?
The Real Russian Cauldron
Now let’s ask the next question that keeps coming up.
Why has Putin not shut off the gas to a Europe that is rapidly running out of it?
Because to do so would target civilian populations. If he’s not targeting civilians in Ukraine to minimize their anger at being invaded, then why would he use that weapon now against civilians in Germany who hold the key to getting overthrowing the insane politicians and oligarchs who provoked this war in the first place?
It doesn’t make any strategic sense. It also speaks to a kind of confidence in Russia’s military position in Ukraine, thereby lending credence to the reports that Russia is achieving her strategic goals on the ground in Ukraine.
Okay, that’s the lay of the land.
So, what are Putin’s real goals? Like I said at the outset, nothing less than breaking the back of Davos and their agents in the US/UK who have tormented Russia for more than a century.
How does he achieve that goal?
Putin is creating incontrovertible facts which his opponents must respond to. Again, he’s setting the operational tempo, like I said last week.
Their counter-moves are insipid and predictable. Ukraine has asked for admission into the EU. The EU is open to this. Georgia is now doing the same thing. Turkey is livid. Hungary is not getting involved.
No one is willing to actually send arms to Ukraine.
What does the EU achieve by adding Ukraine? Do they think because they signed a piece of paper with a person who is de facto not in charge of his country going to change the facts on the ground there?
Do they still think “stroke of the pen, law of the land, kinda cool” matters at this point?
Because if the EU accepts Ukraine into its ranks, then it will be responsible for the next stage of escalation, not Putin. It will then have to figure out how to oust the Russians from their territory.
Last night President Sundowner made the entire US State of the Union about Ukraine. Do they really think a president with an approval rating that is, at best 37%, capable of marshalling the US into fighting a war for Europe against Russia after bankrupting us with NATO for three generations?
If they are, they are more delusional than even I’ve contemplated at this point.
Is NATO prepared to expand now into Ukraine under the umbrella of EU membership? If so,
What’s obvious to me is the neocons and neoliberals controlling the West think they can turn Ukraine into a quagmire for Putin, but what if Putin thinks he can turn Ukraine into a quagmire for them?
Russia is not capable of conquering Europe. But he doesn’t need to to defeat them. He just needs to create a version of the map I posted above.
The Limits of Money Wars
If Putin and Russia have achieved, or are about to achieve, all of their military goals in Ukraine, what do they do to secure those gains?
They have to neutralize the financial war waged against them and create an environment where Europe spends money it doesn’t have, with failing political capital domestically, and bankrupts them completely.
And the first move along those lines was just announced by the Russian Finance Ministry today (VPN and Deepl translator needed).
What does this mean? It means simply that Russia has now, in effect, begun the remonetization of gold for domestic purposes. By removing the VAT on gold purchases Russian citizens can now offset their currency risk with gold and stabilize the domestic monetary situation.
The first step in offsetting financial warfare from the West is allowing the domestic population to be immune to collapses in their currency from foreign actors pulling capital out of the country. Companies doing international business now have an alternative to hold time deposits which are far less volatile than the ruble without penalty. Gold becomes the coin of Russia’s international business.
It’s the beginning of the process of draining physical gold from the global market and control over its price by the ponzi schemes that are the COMEX and the LBMA.
This is a first step in rebuilding confidence in the Russian banking system rather than what we’re seeing in the West which is the ritualistic assault on privacy, wealth generation and the value of our labor, which is degrading rapidly thanks to inflation, which will rage from here as all energy and commodity markets are scared to death of Davos’ financial war on Russia.
As Luke Gromen pointed out on Twitter this is the big signal that the petrodollar system is headed for the ashbin of history.
With the global oil market in a complete state of shock as no one wants to run afoul of US and/or EU sanctions on Russian energy, the price of oil here potentially goes parabolic. At that point reality hits the money masters squarely in the face.
Those that brave the waters will get their oil at a steep discount, those that don’t will pay through the nose, further accelerating the decline of those economies as inflation spirals out of control and the people put the blame, not on Putin, but on the people in charge.
Moreover, Russia has kept the gas flows going to ensure that money keeps flowing into the country to finance further expansion of its gold reserves.
The current shock will abate. Russia is not Iran. It can insure its own tanker fleet. It can deliver the oil. If Iran could survive what Trump did to them, Russia can thrive under this new regime, changing the entire flow of capital around the world.
Now, I want to turn your attention to the other news of which further corroborates that Davos and Europe are trapped. FOMC Chair Jerome Powell testified today telling the world that the Fed will still hike 25 basis points in March. Bullard came out and said the Fed has to withdraw accommodation to maintain its credibility.
Further Powell blamed both the Fed and Congress for inflation. It’s a result of too much spending.
Powell even floated the idea that the world can have more than one reserve currency (!!). Meanwhile Biden is talking about bringing back Build Back Better and sending us down the road to financial ruin.
The fight between Davos and the Fed, which I identified last summer is real, folks. That leaves a belligerent yet impotent Europe caught between the Scylla of a Fed drying up the global supply of dollars and the Carbides of a Russian military capable of withstanding anything Europe throws at them if the US doesn’t get involved, i.e. this doesn’t go nuclear.
NATO isn’t getting involved in Ukraine even if Ukraine becomes an EU member. They can have the landlocked rump of what’s left over. If Putin is smart, which he is, he will offer the Poles Lviv and Hungary Transcarpathia. The EU gets the dregs.
It’s clear from the wailing and gnashing of the Neocon/Neolibs that they want Putin Milosevic’d for daring to put them in this position. They still dream of overthrowing him. It’s also clear that there are a lot of people who are not down with the willful destruction of the current global economy within the upper reaches of US policy makers and European corporate boards.
This is the real fight for the future and if Davos thinks extreme demand destruction will be tolerated for any length of time over a regional conflict like Ukraine because it’s their ox being gored, then this war, while still raging, is, in effect, already over.
Join My Patreon if you like seeing two moves ahead
BTC: 3GSkAe8PhENyMWQb7orjtnJK9VX8mMf7Zf
BCH: qq9pvwq26d8fjfk0f6k5mmnn09vzkmeh3sffxd6ryt
DCR: DsV2x4kJ4gWCPSpHmS4czbLz2fJNqms78oE
LTC: MWWdCHbMmn1yuyMSZX55ENJnQo8DXCFg5k
DASH: XjWQKXJuxYzaNV6WMC4zhuQ43uBw8mN4Va
WAVES: 3PF58yzAghxPJad5rM44ZpH5fUZJug4kBSa
ETH: 0x1dd2e6cddb02e3839700b33e9dd45859344c9edc
DGB: SXygreEdaAWESbgW6mG15dgfH6qVUE5FSE
are you expecting Putin to attack NATO countries after Ukraine?
No
I agree with that. great info
Found your article just now at SOTN State Of The Nation under the heading “Grandmaster Vladimir Putin’s Plan to Rearrange the European Geopolitical Chessboard”….
Way too much credit for this crypto j. + chabad lapdog Vlad P.
Check Out: https://fitzinfo.net/2018/03/10/putin-dossier/
In July 2006 Alexander Litvinenko former FSB spy who lived in exile in London wrote an article on a Chechen website that P. has a long history of paedophilia : https://order-order.com/2016/01/21/read-litvinenkos-article-accusing-putin-of-paedophilia/ after this footage was aired at
mainstream tv in Russia :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uWEaKLzwUg&t=1s
Litvinenko wrote in his book “Blowing Up Russia – Terror from Within” that the FSB (former KGB / don’t forget was its former director) were behind the bombings of appartments in Chechenya / with hundreds of civilian deaths in 1999 / leading to the Chechen war / essentialy the false flag* serving as the red carpet for Vlad P. to the Kremlin.
Litvinenko was poisoned in London by two of P.’s agents https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/alexander-litvinenko-putin-video-paedophile-7223902 In Paedo Putin’s democratic Russia his critics are done away with j. bolshevik Checka ( the forerunner of the KGB) style.
( * Vlad P. was the first who called Bush II the day after 911 with condolences and reminded W. of his own anti-terrorist campaign in Chechnya…. )
CIA O
Hello Tom Luongo
Thank you.
Tom, you say Davos is “trapped”, and “Biden is talking about bringing back Build Back Better and sending us down the road to financial ruin.” The agenda of the great re-set is to destroy western economies to “build back better?” My question to you is who in the USA is going to stop this destruction? The republicans don’t seem like much of an opposition.
BBB is dead. And the Fed /Wall St. control the Republicans
For months Powell made a point in his fed talks to tell everyone the only way to get back to normal is to take the vaccine. Why was a fed chair enthusiastically touting the vaccine? I hope you’re right about BBB being dead, but how will they introduce CBDC without these “vaccine passports?” It can’t just all be over.
The WEF has a headquarters, but it’s in Cologny, not the eastern ski town. You can find the Great Resetters on Rte de la Capite across the road from the Golf Club of Geneva. You might therefore think that Geneva and Cologny are where plans are settled. Surely Davos is for fun, recruiting, screening possible recruits, and telling hoi polloi what the upper echelons already agreed upon before arrival. Yet Klaus and his wife live in Schaffhausen, nne of Zurich, or so Wikipedia reports.
If BBB is dead then the Agenda 2030 is dead too?
Because the people who hold assets in America or assets denominated in dollars will get financially fucked if the Petro dollar falls, and they aren’t going to be willing to take that for the sake of the delusions of grandeur of their more globalist peers.
The problem the west is facing right now is it has the world’s reserve currency in the form of the dollar but isn’t producing industrially, innovating scientifically, or dominating militarily. A wiser move by the west would have been to negotiate with the Russians, push for the adherence to the Minsk agreement, promise not to put nuclear weapons in Eastern Europe and use the time bought by negotiating to begin doing at least one of those three things while still maintaining the benefit of having the world reserve currency.
Instead they threw their toys at the wall and began beating the floor with their fists while screaming, and now the adults in the room have to step in. Whether or not there are any adults on the western side of the room remains to be seen, but there certainly are adults on the eastern side.
President Trump.
One week in and there is no pasta on the shelves at Lidl. Crude is going parabolic. Why would VPP need to play the gas card right now?
Putin will sell his oil for gold, dumping the dollar. This will be the monetary equivalent of 30 MT atomic bomb. The US hegemony is on borrowed time… and the EU will soon discover the meaning of “unintended consequences”.
Fantastic analysis as always, Tom. Thanks for sharing.
Also, just joined the Big Buck Patreon tier. Looking forward to digging in!
Welcome aboard. Thank you!
Ukraine and Syria – the two main transit countries for Russian LNG. Targeted by the Davosians to force Putin to take his seat at their global governance table.
But instead Putin used the Russian Air Force to destroy the Davosian countergang in Syria (ISIS)
Back when he thought he could forge a multipolar world.
Why has he not used the Russian Air Force to destroy the Davosian countergang in Ukraine? Why does all the footage look a bit staged? A bit…………”Wag The Dog”?
Because he has seen the light. He’s co-operating – playing the Bad Cop so the Davosians can shut down the old fiat currency systems and blame it on a Russian cyberattack.
And then we freeze in the dark for a month and beg for the Great Reset.
They switch the lights back on and behold – welcome to the technogulag (using the digital IDs that their plandemic gifted them)
Global governance. Public crypto for UBI. Bitcoin banned. Social credit.
And peace in our time, with Putin and Klaus Schwab hugging for the cameras.
I hope I’m wrong, because our choice at that stage is to comply or become Edgar Friendly.
“Because he has seen the light. He’s co-operating – playing the Bad Cop so the Davosians can shut down the old fiat currency systems and blame it on a Russian cyberattack.“
I have been thinking about this scenario as well. The Davos crowd could easily perform a massive cyber attack (real or staged) that could lead to the destruction a nuke could theoretically create without the destroyed infrastructure. Then they can simply turn it back on when the feel we have repented sufficiently.
Also, Tom, I just joined the patreon after following you recently. Love your work.
That would make a great movie script, but I have my own pet theory. The European Management Forum popped up on KGB radar by the 1980’s and was monitored indirectly as a consequence of watching western plutocrats, corp execs, and politicians. After the breakup of the USSR, experienced KGB guy Putin took it upon himself, or was ordered, to make contact with and check out the WEF from the inside. Putin, who was still trying to keep options open at a very uncertain time, embraced the the opportunity to do some networking but was basically working as a spy.
I too worry that this war with two Jewish heads of state is just theater for monopolizing land and resources to help with the NWO. It does feel staged. Sound money has always been a friend to freedom, wealth and humanity. If Putin is going to a gold “standard” he has my vote and I hope he pounds the Davos crowd back to the desert but……maybe he is on WEF team?
Right, so is Putin fighting for Great Reset or against it?
Against it. It’s pretty clear. It’s not that hard guys. We threatened him with Nukes in Ukraine, he broke whatever agreement they had over what he was ‘allowed to take’ and here we are.
Now he goes for it to force the WEF Technofaggots out of the game.
Tom,
I understand the logic of “Putin is fighting against WEF”.
It’s clear.
But, isn’t the complete remake after this is over also a “Great Reset”? (it may be different than WEF had in mind).
I don’t think anybody knows how things will look like when the dust settles. We just know it won’t be the same as it was.
Yes, but it’s not Davos’ Great Reset. They wanted the whole world. They will settle now for terrorizing a rump of the current EU and not much else while empowering vandals within the US to do as much damage to it as possible.
That’s the best they’ve got Ivan. Russia may break the West here, but it will be to also absolutley break Davos, since so many of them are Russia’s traditional european enemies.
Tom, I love your confidence that Putin is on the right side and just defending Russia’s border from Nukes. NATO and Zalensky (as an installed puppet) sure poked the bear. Yet still have doubts weather it is by design. Look what this will do for the Globalists especially in America; Cover for Covid, Food Shortages, Rising Gas Prices, Crippling Economy Further, all the better for the Great Reset to save us. If Putin is against the WEF, I believe these sociopaths could/or will use the nuclear option.
He can’t fix everything. What he can do is begin breaking the system they created. That system has to break and in the process there’s going to be terrible consequences… BUT THOSE ARE NOT HIS RESPONSIBILITY….THEY ARE OURS.
If we do have not have the stones to throw out the leadership that put us in this position then we deserve the fate in front of us.
It’s a junta in DC, it’s also being actively fought by the bankers in NY and the Fed, and it’s lifetime has less than a year of life left.
Decades of “temporary” “one-time” and “emergency” deficit spending broke the west. Putin just pushed the already dead corpse over.
Decades of high energy lifestyles — all the environmental hollywood types have central A/C and amazing landscape lighting even though they live on their private jet. Yet California’s electricity is generated out of state.
Silicone Valley eats their avocado toast while the actual silicone wafers are manufactured not-in-my-backyard.
Silicone valley is a Potemkin Village
And Silicone Valley is running Washington DC now. Their European equivalents run Brussels and WEF.
The G7 conference in Ireland literally had abandoned storefronts painted to look occupied — the G7 weenies sped past the fake storefronts in their armored limos and dined on 5-star meals flown in from far away. The COP27 conference wasn’t any better.
This hollow bullsh!t is what is getting reset. Putin is merely one of the kids who yelled out that the emperor is butt naked.
And man are the naked emperors angry. They didn’t expect the peasants to call them out on their bankrupt BS
I don’t care what the empty suits in Hollywood think about Ukraine. I doubt any of them could find Ukraine unless their butler or their private jet pilot found it for them.
Thanks for the reply and loved the article. As you stated, it is our responsibility for the State of the Union. What can we do including ways to break the debt based monetary system that enslaves humanity? It is outrageous that Congress gave up our rights to private bankers to coin our money and charge us interest. Usury was and is a mortal sin. Any ideas for stones we can use?
ivordeacon, I may need to eat some crow.
“ACCORDING TO HIS RECENT SPEECH, PUTIN IS COMMITTED TO GLOBALISM. Reportedly, he was in the World Economic Forum’s leadership program. He goes to the meetings in Davos and gives speeches. Apparently, it has not occurred to Putin that Russian sovereignty is inconsistent with globalism. They are mutually inconsistent. Claus Schwab, the WEF head, is a clear cut Nazi. So why does Putin like the WEF Nazi but not the Ukrainian ones?”
If the author of that is correct, Putin is pozzed, but we need to read the speech to find out.
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/03/04/the-empire-of-lies/
Allan,
Have you read the speeches Putin gives at Davos meetings? Or is this just guilt by association?
Seriously, I’ve read the speeches. I know what he tells Klaus and it’s pretty much, “Klaus, these ideas are stupid. Don’t do them.”
Putin is not a committed Globalist. What he is is someone who misjudged the depth of the depravity of Europe’s leadership for years, thinking it was the US who was his clear adversary.
That perspective has changed dramatically in the past couple of years.
Tom,
You saw my earlier comment in which I suggested that Putin became involved with the WEF to check it out from the inside, like a trained KGB spook would. So I think the charge of guilt by association is unfair. My remarks challenged the very idea directly with what I believed is a more plausible explanation given Putin’s background. That stated, I intend to read his intervention speech today and his latest Davos speech, too, if I get around to it.
You mentioned the obvious depravity of Europe (hate that spelling), which gives me a segue to suggest a topic for a new post. Contemporary enthusiasm for the pseudofederalism project arose in no small part due to the work of two Italians during the war.
ALTIERO SPINELLI, “referred to as one of the founding fathers of the European Union”. “The main building of the European Parliament in Brussels is named after him.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altiero_Spinelli
VENTOTENE MANIFESTO, “a political statement written by Altiero Spinelli…The Manifesto called for a socialist federation of Europe AND THE WORLD.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ventotene_Manifesto
ERNESTO ROSSI, “co-author of the Ventotene Manifesto” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernesto_Rossi_(politician)
COLLEGE OF EUROPE, “a postgraduate institute of European studies with its main campus in Bruges…founded in 1949 by leading historical European figures and founding fathers of the European Union….to train an elite of young executives for Europe” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_of_Europe
I think that the above clarifies the true role of the North Atlantic Treaty, signed in DC in April 1949 and used as the legal basis for NATO. It was never really about the USSR, which many collectivists (e.g. Orwell) had come to despise. Rather, the purpose of NATO is to provide the military muscle to impose the totalitarian world government envisioned by the founders of the EU. The USSR was merely standing in the way back in 1949, and when it disintegrated, NATO simply carried on according to its long-term purpose. DJT, a shallow lout, never understood this when he poured skepticism on it, so he folded quickly to reaction.
Since the USA is the leading military power of NATO and armed habitual aggressor, the USA deserves our condemnation as one of the greatest criminal organizations of so-called Western civilization. She could have done the right thing, but within a period of less than ten years she made two hideous choices: one to save the USSR and another to build up its replacement in the West. It was all done on the pretext of freedom, human rights, and other sanctimonious claptrap. This truth, though it will be painful to the flagwaving suckers of “conservatism”, ought to be enough to begin building a SECOND PARTY devoted to destroying the myth of the Good War and the Bipartisan Party with it.
“For months Powell made a point in his fed talks to tell everyone the only way to get back to normal is to take the vaccine. Why was a fed chair enthusiastically touting the vaccine? I hope you’re right about BBB being dead, but how will they introduce CBDC without these “vaccine passports?”
A simple and straightforward answer to why Powell has pimped Pfizer, MRNA, and J&J is because he and his WS cronies are heavily invested in these monstrous big pharma concerns. But there is more to it than that. A cornerstone of the great reset agenda involves the misleadingly termed “social impact investing.” Not to put too fine a point on it, but regular mRNA injections, which are actually meant to be “software updates” to the biological operating system, are integral to that project.
Actually “were” rather than “are” is the proper tense to use, because, from where I sit, this entire mRNA platform is in the early stages of crashing and burning quite spectacularly. Why? Because if the short and intermediate term adverse events associated with these shots (which an honest review reveals exceed anything remotely acceptable) are duplicated and/or exceeded as more time passes, the backlash will be monumental. Throw into the bargain the billion dollar investments Pfizer has recently made in cancer and auto immune disease concerns, and I think the odds on bet should be for increasingly bad health outcomes across the serially transfected. There is a large control group of non mRNA transfected, and, in due course, it will be impossible to cover up that the harms are overwhelmingly associated with those who have been exposed to these big pharma products.
But according to NYT, NATO is pouring arms into Ukraine:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/nato-countries-pour-weapons-ukraine-195214505.html
It looks like EU and the US want to fight Russia to the last Ukranian.
There’s also been reports of Turkey sending new fleet of drones.
So, there is a danger of a prolonged conflict. And as we know, the cost of
financing low grade insurgency is not that high and therefore potentially
tying Russia in this conflict for longer than they wanted.
I believe the Poles will be very helpful once they understand they get Lviv and other parts of Poland seized by Stalin in 1939. Polish agreement to demilitarzation will prevent any type of insurgency from developing.
The ATMs and Bank Branches are disappearing in Australia….
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10561999/The-END-ATMS-Australia-Thousands-cash-machines-removed-banks-digital.html
I’ve heard this about New Zealand too.
Truly excellent summary. Recently found Tom’s site. Great analysis along with some very smart people commenting.
Anyone have any knowledge or predictions for the following?
–What would happen to stocks in the US if the petrodollar tanked?
–How do you feel about paper Gold or a product you could transfer an IRA to. OR is it physical metals or bust?
Physical metals funds are fine. Stay away from GLD
As for stocks, it’s a complicated question. Right now there is a real possibility of the DOW dropping to around 29000. But then what happens in Europe and Japan will decide what happens after that.
Its a fluid situation. To give you an idea of where my head is on the markets, check out this morning’s Market Report on YT which normally are for Patrons only, but I forgot to unlist it this morning.
https://youtu.be/lyJY97260VQ
Thank you Tom, am listening now. This all feels right in my gut. I thought there might be pretty good odds this whole thing could be theater last week. There was a possibility that Putin was playing along with the Davos plan. I hate thinking like that but its hard not to after all the psychological brow beating they have poured onto us. However if you watch behind the scenes at the way our media is behaving you come to the conclusion that Putin has indeed ruffled the feathers of the Davos club……Hopefully he goes all the way.
For “paper gold” I can recommend OUNZ, which actually allows you to take physical delivery if you pay a fee. On one occasion I was able to do this, and the markup I had to pay on the coins I was delivered was lower than any coin dealer I could find.
Willem,
This is excellent information. thank you!
Thank you Willem. Tom will be joining next week. Do you have a preferred list of similar funds behind your paywall? It’s certainly not a deal breaker. There’s a wealth of information on here already.
Thanks for this analysis, Tom. Your “take” on the situation demonstrates real thinking and insight on a situation most commentators can’t seem to grasp–out of ideological blindness, laziness and/or misunderstanding of the region.
Yep… everything here is spot on. I have been following the details of the operation on the Russian language media. They have correspondents imbedded in most of their military columns, so it is possible to get details on the smallest villages and engagements. Pretty much the military campaign is over… and it is either mopping up or letting the trapped Ukrainian forces flee. I don’t think Putin will wants anything to do with eliminating the nationalists (really Nazis) but de-nazifying the country by letting them flee to a rump state in Western Ukraine. This will avoid large scale military clashes and casualties which the Western press will exploit… while at the same time introducing the EU/NATO to the insurgent forces it intends to arm and fund. If enough of the hardcore nationalists flee to Western Ukraine, there will be enough of them to form a real, bona fide, white supremacist, ultra-nationalist Nazi State. And once that occurs, they will be the EU’s problem not Putin’s.
From reading the Russian press, I think that is Putin’s real objective and why Russia has been so lackadaisical about countering the Western media propaganda and closing the cauldrons. Once the Azov Battalion/ Right Sector arrive in L’vov, begging for EU/NATO arms, the hypocrisy of the West will become immediately apparent. The best outcome for Putin would be to have someone like Dmitri Yarosh head up the a rump state in Western Ukraine… and let Simon Weisenthal Center do the rest.
I don’t have an idea about what Putin intends to do with the the areas of mixed population in and around Kharkov & Kiev… but possibly present them with a choice between being governed by Yarosh or by Russia? If those are the two options, then they will probably go with Russia.
Putin is finally cleaning up the mess Victoria Nuland made in 2013-2014. The average Ukrainian must be confused about who their real enemies are. Every time the U.S. meddles in Ukraine, Ukraine loses territory!
Thank you for this excellent analysis with a lot to reflect on.
There’s one detail you left out of your article that Davos, CIA/MI6 let alone the EU don’t get, and that is the importance of Kiev to Putin.
Kiev is the spiritual home of Russians and the Russian nation and is the cornerstone that Putin needs to build his new Russia on. As such, he cannot allow the city to fall into unfriendly hands.
How that will play out, I can only guess, but I can’t imagine that Kiev will be allowed to become a part of an EU-aligned rump Ukraine.
Tom, where are your 20 minute or so podcast rants – loved this for the car.
I have a podcast just recorded between me and Dexter I’ll be releasing in a couple of hours. I have another interview to do and then I’ll work on getting that out.
“breaking the back of Davos and their agents in the US/UK who have tormented Russia for more than a century.”
Let’s face it: “Internationalists”, “Globalists”, and “Elites” are euphemisms for something else.
Surely the the dollar’s value is, or is underpinned by, the fact that everything runs off of it, like an OS. Once you start diminishing its universality, you are cutting off Samson’s hair aren’t you, or in this case, Samson has gone self-tonsured? And won’t the Russians just put their oil up on the Shanghai Exchange in roubles at a discount?
I love the idea of Gold, Guns and goats, but the author of this piece is delusional.
I think perhaps you need to listen to another side, or you may be on the “wrong one.”
https://www.weforum.org/press/2021/10/russia-joins-centre-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution-network/
This was 4 months ago…does Schwab know that Russia revoked their membership? Did Sberbank get the memo?
https://www.thevoid.uk/void-post/from-event-201-to-cyber-polygon-the-wefs-simulation-of-a-coming-cyber-pandemic-unlimited-hangout/
There is something that bothers me. The precision of what Putin was going to do predicted by CIA and Biden’s calm notifying and managing the situation, the asymmetric numbers (if they are true) but MOST important is that array of tanks and transport over 40miles in a row. I take this as a “wanna talk to somebody else”? then a massive armoured assault. The only reason to think this way is that, they were not attacked. I really think that high level conversations are happening over Putin’s back.
Turkey needs to be carved up too for Russia to have true security. Turkey is a NATO jackal blocking the Bosphorus.
Very good. But, I’m not sure at all about your comment here:
Why has Putin not shut off the gas to a Europe that is rapidly running out of it?
Because to do so would target civilian populations. If he’s not targeting civilians in Ukraine to minimize their anger at being invaded, then why would he use that weapon now against civilians in Germany who hold the key to getting overthrowing the insane politicians and oligarchs who provoked this war in the first place?
Those civilians in Eastern Ukraine and elsewhere are Russian and Putin would like Ukraine intact and minimally resentful. Civilians in Germany are not Russians. And, I think they are more likely to overthrow their government if they are ‘freezing in the dark’ as it was once put.
Tom, good article. The only thing I would add is the importance of the huge oil and gas discoveries in Ukraine. My opinion is that this is at the top of Putin’s agenda.
Thank you . This is a superb analysis which I only hope will be implemented
Actually gas has stopped running to Germany via Poland
Yes, I saw this this morning. Very telling that Putin is now moving to this point.
Source?
See these two sources as example:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-yamal-europe-pipeline-flows-stop-bids-emerge-eastward-shipments-2022-03-01/
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-gas-flows-via-yamal-pipeline-germany-decline-sharply-data-2022-03-03/
Flow resumed once financing was arranged
“….why would he use that weapon now against civilians in Germany who hold the key to getting overthrowing the insane politicians and oligarchs who provoked this war in the first place?
The germans overthrowing a government? You must be joking.The vast majority of them is
against “Putin’s war” anyway and follows the propganda that it’s all “Putin’s fault”. There is not one party in the Bundestag, that doesn’t denounce the war, and the Ukrainian ambassador gets standing ovations. The pro Ukraine hysteria is endless. This is pure madness!
Excellent analysis! It’s becoming more clear why Russia has been buying Gold for years.
An alternative hypothesis (sorry for my horrible english). The Italian Altiero_Spinelli was one of the fathers of the European Union (like Jean Monnet). Read what he wrote (I don’t know if you already knew him).
“Although it cannot be said publicly, the fact is that in order to be born Europe needs a strong Russian-American tension, and not détente, just as to consolidate it will need a war against the Soviet Union (from Diario Europeo – Altiero Spinelli 1948-1969 – Il Mulino, Bologna, 1989, p. 175)
So, a hypothesis could be that Putin, demonstrating a strong ingenuity, has fallen into a trap set by Davos.
Otherwise, it would be like saying Davos hadn’t known for long time what his intentions were. On the contrary, Davos fed ucranians first by sending Stoltenberg to feed Zelinsky’s illusions, then arguing that NATO would never intervene on the ground.
The EU has never been stronger than it is now. Germany just raised its military budget above 2% of GDP. Probably a European Army will be created and no one is talking about applying the rules of the Maastricht Treaty anymore.
Furthermore, the anti-euro and anti-EU movements are literally annihilated. I am part of them. The invasion of Ukraine practically destroyed us.
Not ingenuity, naivety.
Spinelli is vindicated, it seems, even if there is no more USSR. He would have appreciated the irony of Evropean collectivists learning an utterly wrong lesson from Russia’s reaction to provocation and encroachment by NATO and the EU. I find it difficult to believe, however, that Putin and his generals did not anticipate and plan for the unifying effect upon the EU of Russian intervention.
Whatever that plan may be, assuming that there is one, I think that the EU’s countries are in the process of committing suicide. Neither Russia nor China will be happy to tolerate the dirty, rotten West returning to the worst of its imperialist habits of the past 550 years or so. (And is not The Great Reset a spectacular display of those habits?) The leaders of both countries will find it only too tempting now to manufacture a crisis in Africa which sends 100 million or more subsaharans pouring into Evrope. They would hope to spark a horrifying race war and a collapse of society in every EU country, esp. France and Germany. Switzerland and Britain would share the fun, and a famine would be the next phase after society disintegrates. Granted, I’m assuming that the West fails to carry out regime change operations in China and Russia.
(Fyi, your English is quite good. I’ve encountered many people who know only English but who don’t write as well.)
Toussaint — your writing is OK, but your facts need help.
The EU is bankrupt. And Germany cannot fund the EU’s interest payments anymore. All German savings now belong to Gazprom, not Brussels. Did you even try to think that through? It is far more important to first get your facts straight that to write perfect English.
The Maastricht Treaty was abandoned a long time ago, it was the only thing that might have held Europe together if it had been adhered to. Without it, the Euro is no different than the Italian Lira, a failed currency (multiple times over!!!) that even loyal Italians did not keep their wealth in.
And then you bring up this 2% German military spending nonsense. First, Germany swore on their honor that they would spend THREE percent every year as part of NATO. That was a lie. So then the treaty was amended to allow the deadbeats of Europe to spend only 2%… which didn’t happen either. Beratement by US military for years before Trump did not make Germany feel any obligation to meet their sworn promises.
At the start of this Ukraine war, Germany had 90 aircraft. According to the Luftewaffe itself, 78 of those planes do not function at all. No part of them works, and they haven’t worked in years. An additional 7 German planes can fly, but they cannot launch weapons. Only FIVE German aircraft are capable of actual combat out of the 90 Germany claims to have.
There are 20 missiles in a Russian S-400 launcher, four for each functioning aircraft in the German Luftwaffe. The German “airforce” could not survive a single sorti against one Russian anti-air launcher.
And now Olaff, who heads a frail traffic light coalition, is supposedly going to abandon Germany’s plans and start paying 2% toward defense?!?!? And you believe him?
Biden has dementia. What is Olaff’s excuse? What is your excuse?
And then tell us that Europe has never been stronger?!?! Are you high on something? The EU is bankrupt, and has been for some time. Your financial benefactor is now bankrupt. Your central bank is printing currency like a banana republic.
Europe must now beg for natural gas and coal from outside suppliers, and the only practical supplier is Russia.
You have lost your mind Toussaint. Lost your mind
I sincerely hope that you are right and I am wrong.
On the lira, it is not true that it has gone bankrupt several times. Indeed, it never failed! You will find below the defaults of the various european states from 1813 (Italy was born in 1860). Surprised?
And then, how can Italy go bankrupt with a public debt of 150%, when private savings are over 6 times as much? 0r with a private debt at 50% of GDP, against the one of Dutch, for example, of over 600%? The problem is another. The euro and the ECB, not Italy.
List of Default (where is Italy? Nowhere!)
• Albania (1990)
• Austria (1938, 1940, 1945)
• Austria-Ungheria (1796, 1802, 1805, 1811, 1816, 1868)
• Bulgaria (1990)
• Croazia (1993–1996)
• Danimarca (1813)
• Francia (1558, 1624, 1648, 1661, 1701, 1715, 1770, 1788, 1812)
• Germania (1932, 1939, 1948) Assia (1814) Prussia (1683, 1807, 1813) Schleswig-Holstein (1850)
My opinion is not “the true”. It’s only a hypothesis. Like yours.
A few notes. The Lira never failed. You will find below the list of defaults of European countries starting from 1813. Italy was founded in 1860. Surprised?
Moreover, in the face of a public debt of 150% GDP, italian private saving is more than 6 times the GDP, the trade balance is in strong surplus from several years and it is the fourth country in the world for gold reserves.
In closing, the private debt is 50% of GDP, against the one of virtuous both Dutch and Denmark, as example, over 600% of GDP.
So, why Italy is near default, according to your opinion? May be because it still has much wealth to be robbed?
The problem, my hasty friend, is both euro and ECB, not Lira.
LIST OF DEFAULT PER EUROPEAN COUNTRY
Austria (1938, 1940, 1945)
Austria-Hungary (1796, 1802, 1805, 1811, 1816, 1868)
Bulgaria (1990)
Croatia (1993–1996)
Denmark (1813)
France (1558, 1624, 1648, 1661, 1701, 1715, 1770, 1788, 1812)
Germany (1932, 1939, 1948) –
Hesse (1814)
Prussia (1683, 1807, 1813)
Schleswig-Holstein (1850)
My God. Where is Italy? In your mind only?
You might not be aware of this but for about 150 years before Poland took Lviv after WW I Lviv was called Lemberg and was part of the Austrian part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Some Ukrainians still regard those days as good times. I have been there several times and my friend was a teacher there years ago and his Ukrainian friends said under Austrian rule things were good. Things were not very good under Polish rule. Nor did Ukrainians have it better for those under Soviet rule where the Holodomor took place. Both these events help explain why Ukrainians greeted the invading Germans as liberators in 1941 and formed the Galician Division that fought alongside the German armed forces.
From Gerd Schultze-Rhonhof’s book “The War That Had Many Fathers”:
“Banned from German schoolbooks” is “the humanitarian tragedy of the non-Polish minorities in Poland”. Poland had “five million Ukrainians” and many fled to (British) Canada. British newspapers and the British Parliament took up the subject.
Manchester Guardian, 12/14/1931 – “The minorities in Poland are to disappear. This policy is being pushed forward ruthlessly and without the slightest regard for public opinion abroad” “The Ukraine under Polish rule is an inferno – the same can be said of White Russia [Belarus] with even greater justice. The purpose of the Polish policy is the disappearance of the national minorities”
British Parliament, 6/15/32 -“in Volhynia, the conditions are harsher still” “one especially deplorable matter – that is, the torture of prisoners in the prisons and of suspects…I regret that the evidence is convincing that medieval torture is practiced”
In France, a professor of Slavic studies who had lived there – “There were shootings, hangings, tortures, imprisonments, confiscations…Many Ukrainian priests were executed”
Under Austrian rule there were eleven Ukrainian Professorships at the university. Under Polish rule there were none. Ukrainian primary schools were reduced in number by about two thirds.
In the lands taken from Germany things were similar. By 1931 already, over one million Germans fled Poland for Germany. More would flee later.
The part of the lecture pertaining to this starts at 15 min and 15 seconds into the lecture.
The War That Had Many Fathers –
Thanks for posting this! Worth the entire hour. I never understood the partitioning of Poland; why Hitler would give away half of Poland, the Baltic States & Finland to resolve the Danzig corridor issue… in addition to starting the Second World War when he was woefully under armed.
Another missing piece to the whole puzzle was why Britain gave a war guarantee to Poland. This is covered in detail in Pat Buchannan’s 2008 book: “Churchill, Hitler and the Unnecessary War: How Britain Lost Its Empire and the West Lost the World”. After losing Czechoslovakia to Hitler, Chamberlain allowed it as a “bluff” but was called on it by those in the UK that wanted the war after Hitler invaded Poland. FDR’s failure to notify the Poles was probably out of deference and his belief in the British bluff… that Hitler would not cross the frontier.
The issue of the UK & France offering the Baltics to Stalin is still quite murky. Stephen Kotkin reports that that was one of the main items of discussion between the powers and that Stalin could not get over Britain’s insistence on independence for the Baltics when they ruled all of India. So, while the Baltics were up for discussion, it was by no means a certainty that they would have been ceded to Stalin… and the British public would never have stood for it. However, they may have been offered to Stalin as inducements, to keep him at the table and buy time, in the same way they sent minor plenipotentiaries to Moscow that never had the authority to sign such a treaty.
Anyway, the similarities between Germany-Poland in 1939 and Russia-Ukraine today are almost identical… so thanks again for posting the video!
You’re welcome.
Tom, you are a genius. I just watched a local community college zoom presentation for 45 minutes on Russia and Ukraine. The blowhard (former spook he indicated) was talking about how Putin is confused, not a good planner, failing, etc. So refreshing to see your reality based assessment and deep analysis, thank you!
Karen,
Big fan of yours for years at LRC and your opinion means the world to me. So, thank you very much for letting me know what you thought of my work.
High praise ma’am.
US intelligence agencies say Putin is confused? Frail? Not a good planner?
Have any of these “intelligentia” watched Biden in action?
Are the intelligence services confusing Putin for Biden?
it is terrible that the losers in NATO HQ, London and Washington DC are not going to suffer a single casualty for what they started.
Thousands of Ukranians are going to die. Millions will be refugees. All because NATO wanted to expand. Anyone with half a brain — and that excludes western media — knew from the beginning that Russia wouldn’t allow NATO missiles in Ukraine anymore than the US would allow Soviet missiles in Cuba.
Obviously the Russians would shut NATO expansion down. Anyone who says they didn’t see that coming is either lying or stupid.
Zelensky is stupid. He might be a good comedian. He can deliver lines to the camera like a professional entertainer (because that is what he is). But he grew up in Ukraine and he knew Russia would never allow NATO into Ukraine. The blood of millions of Ukranians is on Zelensky’s hands.
Armchair quarterbacks in the US media are saying the Russian attack has been stopped or slowed — which shows that none of them have read an introductory paper on Russian military doctrine. One doesn’t need any classified access, historical battles are publicly available in both Russia and in the US (in Washington DC, Annapolis, West Point, etc). US military leaders have published books on the subject. Its not a secret if you can read.
Considering the fog of war that usually happens in an attack, the Russians are probably ahead of where they expected to be after one week.
Ukraine is conscripting every male between 18-60. They are even conscripting males trying to flee west with their families. That is not a tactic employed by defenders who think they are winning.
Russia will control everything from the Dnieper river east (and likely the western bank of the river). Russia will control the mouth of the river where it enters the Black Sea.
Belarus might get a piece, but also they will have enhanced access to the Dnieper and Black Sea. Poland will be offered a section of Ukraine that historically has been part of Poland in the past. Slovakia will be offered a piece also.
Russia’s economy was already re-aligning away from Europe, that will accelerate. Many countries (India, Turkey, Iran, Syria, Egypt) have already announced they will trade with Russia outside of SWIFT. Others will follow. China regularly trades with Iran despite US sanctions; they will trade with Russia too. Far from collapsing, Russia’s economy will just accelerate its move away from Europe.
The USA continues to buy Russian oil, because Canadian oil can’t flow in the Keystone pipeline that Biden canceled. Alaska’s oil fields are mature (they peaked in production a decade ago).
Germany has no viable options. Germany will continue to buy Russian gas. If they don’t it will accelerate the collapse of the EU…
BTW, a collapse of a unified European currency is not unprecedented either. The Euro will be at least the fourth failed attempt. Read your history books people, its in there.
Tom – have you read any military history books on Russia?
All the major rivers in Russia flow north-south. That makes transportation east-west very difficult.
For centuries, whomever controlled Russia always made sure that the few roads and railway lines going east-west had critical bridges that could be destroyed in the event Russia was invaded.
Everyone knows Napoleon and Hitler failed to understand Russian terrain. But the King of Sweden failed the lesson long before Napoleon. The Ottoman Empire had trouble with it. Even Ghengis Khan.
The same terrain exists in Ukraine. If Russia controls the Dnieper river, and the bridges across it — NATO cannot invade Russia. The logistics of moving an army, even a modern army, make a large river an obstacle.
Russia is methodically clearing the area east of the Dnieper. They now control most of the Black Sea coast line, including the mouth of the Dnieper. Russian ally Belarus controls the other end. Russian artillery is slowly pounding Ukranian cities into rubble, while allowing refugees to flee westward (becoming Slovakia and Poland’s problem).
Anyone with half a brain knew, or should have known, that Russia wasn’t going to allow NATO into Ukraine anymore than the US would allow Soviets into Cuba. It doesn’t matter if JFK was right or wrong to stifle Cuban sovereignty. He had to protect the USA. Same with Ukraine.
The Bay of Pigs “special operation” didn’t go so well. The UN didn’t threaten to kick the US out. After the Bay of Pigs, none of the self righteous European countries froze JFK’s assets. None initiated trade embargoes against the USA. Of course, the US economy was much stronger, and the national debt was a blip. Today the US is operating from a position of weakness (not solely because of the frail man in the Oval office).
Zelensky knew (or should have known) how this would go. He grew up in Ukraine, so he has no excuse. He set his country on a path to suicide.
Despite the incompetence of Zelensky and the cluelessness of NATO / Washington / London… none of the worthless politicians are likely to pay any price for this tragedy. Meanwhile Ukranian citizens are screwed.
Very good points Chris.
China Has Killed Almost A Million Americans With A Bioweapon, Threatens Taiwan, Biden Sanctions Russia…
by L Todd WoodFebruary 26, 202232410
After the Russian blitzkrieg in Ukraine, the Biden administration has levied heavy sanctions on the Kremlin, the Russian economy, and Russian individuals.
However, there are no sanctions on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
In fact, the Biden administration is enabling China at every turn.
This is after the CCP purposefully released Covid-19 into the West without notifying Western officials.
This is a simple fact.
It is probable China developed the bioweapon, in concert with Anthony Fauci and the gang, and the pathogen was intentionally released on the world to further China’s rise as a great power, to weaken the United States, and to take out President Trump.
America is closing in on one million deaths from the pandemic.
China is committing genocide against its own people as we speak.
The CCP is threatening Taiwan, a strategically important island to the West and freedom in general.
The Biden administration is silent.
Why is that?
Perhaps it has to do with blackmail? We have documented at CDM corrupt payments in the millions of dollars from organized crime in Ukraine and from the CCP itself.
Evidence points to the reality Biden was fraudulently elected with the help of Chinese cyber criminals.
The Biden Crime Family’s criminal behavior and selective outrage can no longer be ignored.
We call for impeachment of Joe Biden and everyone in his regime for high crimes against the American people.
Whatever you want to say about the invasion of Ukraine, Russia is not the existential threat to the United States.
China is.
Kleine INFO, Chernivtsi gehörte zu Rumänien sowie Moldawien!!!
EXCELLENT ANALYSIS! I have been looking so hard for someone, anyone, to state the truth with regards to WHAT Putin is doing, and WHY. Ron Paul talked about the Petrodollar collapsing back in 2016 to Congress.. Talked to an empty room apparently. I would be interested to know, what, if anything, can one immediately do, to prevent massive fallout to their investments, and cash in the banks? Because I agree with you, this is coming. Do you have some sound suggestions?
i do, check out my patreon… the newsletter provides a model portfolio.
Will do. Thanks so much for a quick response. God Bless you.
I think Putin made it crystal clear what the initial stage will be. Destroy Ukraines military potential, and round up as many Nazis as they can. After that? Install a puppet government, which will hopefully be accepted by the people … the reason he is trying to avoid killing them.
Yes, that is clear.. then it will be Europe’s move. and if the US and NATO are not willing to escalate to Nuclear War, Russia wins the currency war when they use gold to reprice oil and commodities and the Fed wins the war at home when the Democrats can’t force us to spend more.
The key here is the mid-terms and a signal from Congress that spending is being cut to allow the Fed to begin normalizing rates.
I would echo Tom’s comments, and add a quick blurb about repricing oil.
For decades, the Saudis used the rough guide that 15-17 barrels of oil should buy one ounce of gold. That’s on average. The exact multiple depends on where we are in the economic cycle, seasons in the northern hemisphere, etc. Lets split the difference and say 16x.
Reagan referred to this guideline (he actually said 15x) because in the early 1980s this gold versus oil reference was well known.
Gold recently spiked to $1975 at last Friday’s close. The 30 day average is about $1850, and a longer term median is about $1800. Lets go with $1800 just to be conservative ($175 below the last close).
So $1800 divided by 16 is $112.50 per barrel.
That is roughly where oil closed on Friday. If you use Reagan’s 15x estimate or you use the spot gold close, oil would be even higher.
Think of all the middle class registered voters filling up their mini-vans on the way to soccer practice, and seeing the price of gasoline based on $112-113 crude oil.
But if oil gets repriced to its long term average multiple versus a conservative estimate of gold, then current gasoline prices will be the norm. The impact of oil price reset (and gasoline) on the US economy will be severe.
Biden is bringing back the 1970s.
London and Tel Aviv are certainly on board for taking advantage of the ostracization of Russia by offering enhanced offshore and grey banking which the EU cannot officially promote. Add that crypto were going somehow low as ppl realized mining was energy costly.
Eric Princ tried to buy a shuttered auto factory and turn it into an arms factory. The Chinese already had an option on it. The deal is now in litigation. This would have been too close for Putin so perhaps is what instigated the takeover of Ukraine…..
https://time.com/6076035/erik-prince-ukraine-private-army/
I was shocked at the stupidity on US media this week. Countless intellectuals with advanced graduate degrees were arguing that the US should impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
How would shooting down a Russian military plane, using a US military plane, not be an act of war?
How would a US military plane bombing a Russian artillery position not be an act of war?
How many Berkley and Stanford graduates does it take to figure out that, unlike Iraq and the Taliban, Russia has some of the best anti-aircraft systems in the world. Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, Russia can shoot our planes down.
Russia has all sorts of missiles that can deliver death to western Europe and/or the USA. Russia’s hypersonic missiles can hit Ireland and Portugal (points furthest from Russia) in under 10 minutes — Germany and France in far less time.
A couple years ago, we learned that US ICBMs had been largely neglected since 1995 / end of the cold war. Most ICBM silos still use 8 inch **FLOPPY DRIVES** for their operating systems.
Russia’s ICBMs were a mess after the Soviet Union’s collapse, but Putin seems to have planned ahead for this confrontation. Anyone actually dumb enough to believe the US Congress planned ahead on any subject at all?
Obama and Trump both made official comments that Ukraine is not a matter of US national security. Ukraine is not something the US should fight to the death over — but it is vital to Russia. Hunter Biden is getting $50K per month “consulting” bribe, the rest of the country has no interest in Ukraine.
The US needs to stop the infantile nonsense about no-fly zones against a country able to shoot our planes down. Stop pretending we can bully a nuclear power the same as we can bully a bunch of turban wearing Afghanis. The stupidity of Lindsey Graham calling for Putin’s assassination is beyond belief — no rational government would include such an imbecile.
Either admit you want a real war against a peer adversary, one in which your city in the USA gets blown to bits. Or else shut up.
After all the censorship and cancel culture and anti-Americanism out of California, I don’t trust California to mouth off on international TV and threaten no fly zones. These people can’t even run an electrical grid.
Enough Google. Enough Facebook. Enough Hollywood “actors”. These people are not glued to reality.
James Hetfield, the singer from Metallica, did an interview a few years ago explaining why he moved out of San Fransisco.
Hetfield likes to hunt and to provide his family with meat he knows where it came from.
He said too many of his SF neighbors complained. They asked him why he didn’t buy his meat from a grovery store like a civilized person?
Cause in California, meat just spontaneously appears in the butcher department. No animals were farmed or slaughtered. Where it came from, nobody in CA knows!!
So the NY Met Opera has evicted Anna Netrebko (a Russia soprano considered one of the best ever) because she denounced the war in Ukraine, but would not denounce Putin.
The Met is replacing her with a Ukranian who is… a poor second place from an opera viewpoint, but oh so perfect from a virtue signaling political viewpoint.
Cancel culture strikes again, lowering standards to meet political goals
The only thing I can add to this conversation is that Americans under 50 don’t appear to have any conception of what a nuclear war would mean, and a lot of older Americans appear to have forgotten.
They also don’t understand that red lines might mean nothing to us, but they mean something to others.
Most Americans have no concept of war. Period.
They haven’t had a war on American soil in a long time
and wars of 19th century are something different than
wars of 20th and 21st centuries.
So, while many Americans are celebrating and cheering
“Shock and Awe” and various “humanitarian” wars that
America and NATO wage on others, for most it’s just
a video game.
Putin and Russia have been deeply involved with the WEF Davos agenda. Putin has over the years deeply participated in WEF programs, and many members of the Russian government are high level Davos functionaries. The WEF jab agenda and the cattle tagging of the Russian populace is far advanced there. Putin may have had a falling out with the WEF very recently, but he has never said so publicly. Tessa Lena a Russian expat did an interview with Riley Waggaman a journalist who lives in Moscow covering this subject. I highly recommend it.
https://tessa.substack.com/p/russia-covid?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=cta&utm_source=url&s=r
So how do we play this gold deal? Do we simply buy gold, or do we try and get into the ruble and Russian banks? Just asking.
Tom,
I am wondering where is China?
!
I thought Tom’s thesis about Poland going for L’vov (Lemberg) were too 19th Century and out of the bygone Age of Empires. But it seems Tom saw it coming:
From today’s IZVESTIA update (translated from Russian to English):
3/19/2022:
Poland’s initiative to send NATO peacekeepers to the territory of Ukraine is demagogic, and NATO members will understand that they need to be realistic. This was stated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. “I do not rule out that if such a decision were suddenly made, it would assume that the basis of such a peacekeeping force would be a Polish contingent that would take control of western Ukraine, led by Lviv. And there will remain a long period. It seems to me that this is the plan, ” Lavrov explained.
Amazing !!!
Smash!! Going to recommend it to everyone!! Incredible service and great staff support and gracefulness! You all should try them atleast once! Recommended to everyone! who has the best gold IRA