Trump’s ceding foreign policy to the neocons has created a new set of problems that are forcing Germany’s realignment and possible sanctions relief for Russia.
From my latest at Russia Insider earlier this week:
In the past few days it became quite clear to me that Donald Trump made a deal with the Neocons in Washington. He traded part of his domestic agenda for ceding control of foreign policy to the D.C. establishment.
It’s obvious when you connect the dots. Signing the sanctions bill, the non-shift in Afghanistan policy, the tit-for-tat diplomatic aggression with Russia, weapons to Ukraine, etc. I’ve written extensively about this. Graham is suddenly touting his Obamacare replacement bill.
But, taking Graham at his word what this means is that the whole repeal vote was nothing more than a set up, because in no way could they have put this together in the last few weeks.
Therefore, this was held back from Trump and the rest of Congress for the purpose of finalizing a number of foreign policy initiatives that Trump was hostile to, namely expanded sanctions on Russia and Iran and a troop surge in Afghanistan.
You can read the rest there.
Since I wrote this things are a’changing in eastern Europe. The U.S. moving to shore up support for the Poroshenko regime in Kiev is a direct threat to both Russia and Germany.
The Germans want a way out of the sanctions the Obama administration pushed them to place on Russia over the putsch in Ukraine. Angela Merkel figured she would get control over the Ukrainian gas transit pipelines as well as another EU vassal state on Russia’s border.
The U.S. bankers, military-industrial complex and neoconservative ideologues get a further push east to subjugate Russia and take the port at Sevastopol.
None of that worked because Russia wouldn’t allow it anymore than we would allow Russia to build a hostile client state out of Mexico or Canada.
To think we have the right to do this because we are morally and/or economically superior to Russia is the height of both hubris and folly.
But, enough my opinions.
The Germans are now regretting their decision the same way Turkey is regretting its decision to back the Clinton/Obama play in Syria. Turkey has already engineered its exit plan. Erdogan has told the EU to go scratch and is preparing to join the SCO.
Merkel wants to break with NATO on Ukraine and has been trying to get the Nordstream 2 pipeline built against the U.S.’s wishes. But, for Russia to skirt sanctions to get that built Putin needs Merkel to recognize Crimea and lift EU sanctions.
So, there is a framework for a deal in the end. But, nothing will change until after Mrs. Merkel wins re-election.