Vladimir Putin’s proposal to the UN Security Council to introduce UN Peacekeepers into the breakaway republics of Ukraine is an important counter to U.S. moves to ratchet up the violence along the contact line.
Vladimir Putin’s draft proposal to the UN Security Council is a masterstroke of parallel aggression. It’s the equivalent of pushing a pawn to attack two pieces at the same time after your opponent pulled out their queen.
I’m no chess guy, but I know enough that any opponent that falls into that trap is a bad one. In fact, it’s something I would fall for, because I’m a terrible chess player.
But, then again, so are the U.S. neoconservatives.
After poisoning negotiations in Ukraine by putting John McCain Institute head Kurt Volker in charge, the U.S. then approved $175 million in arms to Ukraine’s embattled “government” in Kiev to escalate the situation.
The goal, I think, was to force the Russians to finally formally move troops in under domestic political pressure to defend ethnic Russians resisting the nazi-sympathizers nominally running the show.
Putin countered by proposing UN Peacekeepers be introduced to the Donbass to ‘protect OSCE observers there.’ The real purposes are far more interesting that that:
- It gives the U.S. and it’s ridiculous ambassador, Waffle House Waitress-in-Waiting, Nikki Haley the opportunity to denounce the plan as an evil Russian plot.
- It forces the U.S. to veto it in the Security Council or give up plans to invade the Donbass.
- It shows Germany a way to save face from the breakdown of the Minsk-2 Accords and begin repairing relations with Russia.
And on point #3 it seems to have worked. From my latest article at Russia Insider:
Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel, now the most popular politician in Germany, has spoken favorably multiple times since the proposal was introduced about lifting sanctions on Russia. Even Mrs. Merkel herself recently acknowledged reality saying that Europe’s security concerns must involve Russia.
“I advise all participants not to say that we won’t do this because not all of our demands are met, but to openly discuss with the Russian Federation the conditions of a UN mission,” Gabriel said.
The deployment, if successful in bringing about a lasting ceasefire, would pave the way for political settlement, Gabriel said, adding that “then, we will be able to begin lifting sanctions imposed on Russia.”
Germany and Angela Merkel want to point to something tangible to say that Russia is not the aggressor here. She realizes the U.S.’s attempt to overthrow Ukraine and gain control over the pipelines there has failed.
Merkel v. Putin
And now she wants a way out that is 1) pragmatic given the reality that Crimea is never going back to Ukraine, 2) doesn’t damage her politically and 3) upholds ‘European Values,’ whatever the hell they are anymore.
It paves the way for a settlement in Ukraine that sees the formalization of Malorussia, which, over time, could extend all the way to Odessa in the West and even include the Moldovan breakaway-region of Transnistria.
Putin’s proposal adds a major impetus to this course of action. This is why Donestk leader Alexander Zakharchenko agreed with Putin’s proposal. He sees the bigger picture despite the possibility of UN shenanigans.
The neocon crazies running foreign policy in the U.S. understand this and would foment a hot war to prevent it. But, Europe cannot keep this up for much longer. The sovereign debt crisis from a weak dollar policy emanating from the Trump administration will finally force Merkel to accept she needs Russia to return Germany to sustainable growth, not growth as a function of safe-haven flows and Bundesbank money printing.
Russia is the key to that and the longer she resists doing the right thing, the more likely it is that Germany will be cut out of the lion’s share of the spoils of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
As always, Putin is a few moves ahead of his opponents in the West. They are predictable in their aggression, constantly on the attack in the most ham-fisted way. Merkel will trade recognizing Crimea for ending the open conflict in Ukraine.
Putin gave her the opportunity to do that in 2018.