Merkel Survives Seehofer, Next up Trump

Angela Merkel caved to Horst Seehofer, who went for her jugular earlier this week.  But, the real question is for how long will this ‘deal’ she’s accepted hold together?

We don’t know the details of it, but if Seehofer got his way on rejecting migrants at the German Austria border after registering in another country, then the knock-on effects will be huge.

And Merkel’s political future is very much in doubt.  As I wrote for Strategic Culture Foundation this morning:

This loss for Merkel leaves her in power, but effectively neutered. Her coalition partners have all the power now and she is simply a care-taker for a German government which no one party controls anymore.

As this played out the latest polls show Alternative for Germany’s (AfD) national support rising above the critical 16% barrier. Seehofer had no choice but to fight for the CSU’s future as it is facing the stiffest challenge to its rule in Bavaria for the first time in decades, over this very issue.

As Mike Shedlock points out this morning, Merkel routinely makes deals she doesn’t have the power to make and then forces them through by political force of will.  She leverages Germany’s dominant position within the EU to get what she wants, further consolidated power in Brussels.

It’s a tactic that gave us the mass influx of migrants into Europe over the past three years.

And while she and Seehofer may have made a deal, the other coalition partner (oh, yeah!  Them!?), the Social-Democrats haven’t signed off on this thing yet.  But, I expect they’ll do whatever it takes to keep the coalition together and Merkel in power.

The Alternative is “for Germany!”  And, as such, the AfD is the real winner here.

Now, like any good Austrian economist will tell you, altering a market through political edict and coercion will always have a downstream effect that is larger than the original problem the edict was supposed to correct.

From Policy to Tragedy

The migrant crisis was brought about via the coordinated foreign policy efforts of the U.S., the U.K. and France leading the wholesale destruction and destabilization over countries all across North Africa and the Middle East, culminating in the drawn-out conflict in Syria.

At every step along the way Merkel has chosen European Union integration over every other concern.  She unilaterally decided to force Europe to accept millions of people displaced by determined policy.  This migrant crisis wasn’t an unforeseen consequence of the Arab Spring, it was part of the plan.

And now the chickens have come home to roost.  I believe Seehofer his opportunity to politically take out Merkel over this issue because he finally saw what the final goal of the European Project was, the destruction of not only national sovereignty but also the abolition of European culture through invasion.

And Merkel via Germany’s power within the EU, was the vector by which this would take place.

The political landscape in the EU has changed so much over the past eighteen months that even victories for the establishment have turned to ash.  French President Emmanuel Macron is despised at home.  Merkel’s coalition is losing support by the day. Alternative for Germany (AfD) is in the process of Crossing the 16% Chasm I talked about a few weeks ago at the start of this crisis.

Note how they have kept their mouths mostly shut during all of this, other than to keep the pressure on Seehofer.  Let the major parties thrash it out and hurt each other.  Take credit for pushing the narrative in this direction for the good of Germany and pledge to work towards implementing real change.

The End of Merkel-ism

Watching the architects of this evil plan now wail and gnash their teeth is frankly delicious.  George Soros is now openly decrying the ‘end of everything.’  The New York Times coverage of this fight between Seehofer and Merkel is tinged with the kind of wistfulness usually reserved for eulogies.

From ‘Leader of the Free World’ after Trump’s election to stripped of all of her political power in eighteen months.  No other figure in German politics will do for the EU what Merkel has done or could do.

And so with her terminally weakened she will go into the NATO Summit with Donald Trump with no ammunition.  She will have to reverse her position on nearly everything to counter Trump’s calls for drawing down our support of NATO and/or altering its primary anti-Russia mission.

Merkel has staked out so many positions that she can now no longer defend that even if AfD leader Alice Weidel is right and this fight between her and Seehofer was really all a LARP, the loss of political capital for her was enormous.

This won’t save her, the CDU, the SPD or anyone else in Germany that doesn’t put Germany first.

Trump’s attacks on Merkel and European institutions I believe have the goal of forcing Germany out of the euro and, ultimately destroying the monetary union.

It’s becoming obvious to me that Trump’s plan is to break the euro-zone of Germany’s control and return the EU to a loose customs-free zone and political union for in the hands of the ‘nativists’ as the New York Times terms them, it should have been in the first place.

Merkel will have to cave on Crimea, Ukraine and Brexit or be faced with extinction.

And even if she does, it will only weaken her further.  Because her whole career has been to further EU integration with Germany in the driver’s seat.  So, she can’t reverse course on these issues.

It’s headed for a break up because of the euro.  The only question will be which countries will continue to use it.

Regardless of what happens, it won’t be Angela Merkel making that decision for the rest of Europe anymore.


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