When an event grabs headlines like the protests in France have I temper my reactions to it. I didn't give the Yellow Vest protests much thought at first wanting to see where they would lead. Protests like this and even bigger ones like Catalonian independence are invariably betrayed by the European political establishment. They become … Continue reading The End of France as We Know It?
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Meet the New Merkel, Same as the Old Merkel
So Angela Merkel is out as leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). In comes Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Merkel's close ally who won the party's support with a very narrow victory over more conservative Friedrich Merz. The goal , as always in Europe, was to maintain the status quo politically. Change needed to change nothing. Brexit negotiations … Continue reading Meet the New Merkel, Same as the Old Merkel
Mr. Tariff Ups the Ante on China
Donald Trump just jumped the shark calling himself, "Mr. Tariff." He believes a trade deficit is akin to stealing the wealth of a nation. It isn't. Under normal conditions a trade deficit is simply a reflection of the difference in comparative advantage of one country's workers over anothers. And the value of the currency is … Continue reading Mr. Tariff Ups the Ante on China
Recession Incoming or Something Worse? 2/10 Spread Collapses
UPDATE: Now stocks are selling off and the 2/10 spread is less than 10 basis points. Gold, however, refuses to sell off while the euro pulls back versus the dollar. Mike Shedlock over at Mishtalk noted yesterday that there have been a couple of troubling inversions in the U.S. yield curve recently. They happened in … Continue reading Recession Incoming or Something Worse? 2/10 Spread Collapses
Trump Folds at G-20 on Everything
I knew there was something wrong with Donald Trump's presidency the day he bombed the airbase at Al-Shairat in Syria. It was a turning point. I knew it was a mistake the moment he did it and argued as such at the time. No act by him was more contentious. It cost me hundreds of … Continue reading Trump Folds at G-20 on Everything
The Ins and Outs of Israel’s Pipeline to Europe.
Israel announced a major pipeline project from the gas fields off its shore involving four countries, terminating in northern Italy. The EastMed Pipeline could be one of the longest in history as well as one of the most technically difficult to pull off. The deal was announced on World Israel News a few days ago … Continue reading The Ins and Outs of Israel’s Pipeline to Europe.
Forget Nordstream 2, Turkstream is the Prize
While the Trump Administration still thinks it can play enough games to derail the Nordstream 2 pipeline via sanctions and threats, the impotence of its position geopolitically was on display the other day as the final pipe of the first train of the Turkstream pipeline entered the waters of the Black Sea. The pipe was … Continue reading Forget Nordstream 2, Turkstream is the Prize
Add This to Bill Browder’s Resume — Criminal Mastermind
Look who's back in the news this week. None other than Mr. Anti-Putin himself, Bill Browder. But Browder isn't happy at all as to why he's in the news this time. A number of things have happened in the past few days which pushed Mr. Browder's future into uncertainty. The first occurred on September 30th … Continue reading Add This to Bill Browder’s Resume — Criminal Mastermind