The European Gas Crisis keeps hitting new high after new high as gas prices around the world go ballistic. While this isn’t just a European problem, if you read the MSM, that’s all they seem to care about.
You know, it snows in Japan as well folks, and China.
Prices keep skyrocketing in Europe because there is no shortage of idiocy at the top of the European power structure. The confluence of the pressurizing of Nordstream 2 with the release of the “Pandora Papers” and the beginnings of German coalition talks just after the beginning of Q4 should have everyone’s Spidey-Sense shutting down like your adrenals do after a long period of self-inflicted stress.
And honestly, whose adrenals aren’t on the verge of collapse after eighteen months of ‘flatten the curve,’ ‘follow the science,’ and ‘just roll over to the Communism, already, you disgusting plebe!’ that we’ve been going through.
I guess that’s yet another thing we have to try and factor into our analysis of what collapse is the most imminent?
Because when you put this gas crisis in Europe into its proper context it should be clear where the battle lines are being drawn as the extreme pressure cooker of today’s geopolitical landscape forces everyone off the sidelines and into the fray.
On the one hand we have natural gas prices in Europe approaching coffin corner. On the other we have Russia browning out gas deliveries to Europe. China is experiencing major energy shortages and the entirety of the coal delivery network around the world is buckling.
These are facts. There are more I could list but let’s stay focused here.
The thing that makes no sense, seemingly, is that no one has an answer why these facts exist in the first place.
Because all anyone official ever wants to do is blame the sneaky Russians to avoid their own responsibility for this.
Finally, after a couple of weeks of this howling, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the issue from their side.
I suggest strongly you read his remarks carefully. Because in there you’ll find a couple of ‘facts’ which make this entire crisis in Europe seem like yet another staged ‘false flag’ for political gain. Ready?
The two middle points are the ones the no one want to report on but are the key to the understanding of this.
Europe is engaged in a game of idiotic brinksmanship with its people and the capital markets over gas supplies. They do this to construct a narrative and distort markets for political benefit.
When the reality is that this entire ‘crisis’ is a manufactured one because of their unwillingness to bow to the forces their policies have unleashed.
Gas prices in Europe are this way because of Europe’s own mistakes in trying to remake its economy (Putin Point #4).
Moreover, Putin also urged Gazprom, as a gesture of good faith despite his misgivings, to ship gas through Ukraine even though it would be better to turn on other capacity.
“Gazprom believes that it is economically more viable, it would even be more profitable to pay a fine to Ukraine, but to increase the volume of pumping through new systems precisely because of the circumstances that I mentioned – there is more pressure in the pipe, less CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. Everything is cheaper, around 3 billion a year. But I ask you not to do this,” the President said.
Does this sound like the mustache-twirling tyrant that’s portrayed in the odious British, US and German media?
Of course not. Now, I’m not accusing Putin of being an angel here or anything, he’s throwing scraps back to people who have put themselves in a position to starve and freeze to death, both literally and politically.
The goal here is to highlight just how moronic the EU’s stance on energy has become, to finally to break up the logjam.
He’s happy to see Gazprom (and possibly Rosneft if need be) sell all Europeans as much gas as it can supply and they demand, but only on terms that benefit everyone, supplier and demander. As I’ve talked about in previous blog posts, the EU thinks they have a monopsony on Russian gas and because of this can dictate terms to them.
This is patently untrue, and Gazprom shifting around supplies for a few days here and there proves that point dramatically. Like Jay Powell draining the world of eurodollars with just five basis points, Putin and Gazprom can expose the the extent of Eurocrat mendacity with just a few days of slowing gas exports.
That’s why this brinksmanship over gas supplies and electricity prices isn’t aimed at the Russians, who clearly have other customers for their gas, but with the people of Europe themselves and the capital markets structured around one-sigma price volatility. They are now extremely vulnerable even if things begin to return to normal.
The Russian Bogey Man is simply the cover story for what is a much deeper and, frankly, much more disturbing game.
So, while Zerohedge is correct about gas supply brown outs in Europe it’s only partly for reasons abundantly clear to even first-year geopolitical analysts:
Flows dropped as Gazprom has booked only about a third of the gas transit capacity it was offered for October via the Yamal-Europe pipeline and no extra transit capacity via Ukraine.
Gazprom declined to comment. It has repeatedly said it was supplying customers with gas in full compliance with existing contracts and said additional supplies could be provided once the newly built Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline was launched.
Ball. Court. Germany.
Yes, Germany needs Nordstream 2. Hell, Europe needs Nordstream 3 if these Davos ninnies are wrong about Climate Change, which they are.
Germany is the country caught in the middle of this titanic battle for the future of the world and Davos is the group creating this false flag to force a shift in sentiment negatively towards Russia.
That’s what’s driving this current crisis, one that, I think, is now threatening the future of the European Union itself. If those are the stakes, then eventually someone will finally do the right thing. Putin just offered the smallest of olive branches. Now let’s see if the European Commission has three collective brain cells to rub together and figure out how to save face (and their backsides).
Beating up and demeaning your neighbor is not a winning strategy, nor is it a path to lower prices and stable markets. At some point they, in this case the Russians, realize the situation is exactly what it looks like from the outside, war. And, Putin is finally treating the EU commissars as enemy combatants because that’s who they are.
That’s why his comments were structured to put the onus of the crisis back on Europe’s leadership rather than blaming the people keeping the lights on.
Whenever things like this happen Capitalism is always blamed. But, it’s always Commie vandals like the EU Commission who created the problem, either deliberately with dumb things like the Third Gas Directive or malinvestment of capital which leaves the world vulnerable to a hot summer in Asia.
And this is the essential point no one wants to confront. The EU picked this fight purely for political purposes because they have an agenda — energy instability for political benefit — but it has come back to bite them in the ass.
Because, as I said, the markets are so tight it takes only a small shift in sentiment to see the prices of things with inelastic demand, like energy, rise dramatically with a marginal shift in either supply, demand or, in this case, both.
Russia doesn’t act this ‘by the book’ at this moment in time without a plan. Treating the EU like the enemies they are is the strategic play. Whining about it in the media only accentuates their weakness and lack of leverage.
My friends at Mittdolcino.com are positively despondent because they see this power play for how it affects Italy, which is that it will carve the country up into pieces over divergent needs for inflation and deflation between it and Germany since one of these two countries need to exit the Euro-zone.
There’s no way this massive ‘drop’ in Russian supplies to the EU occurs without a longer-term strategic plan by the Russians. Putin has made it clear he is fully fed up with EU shenanigans and this is the time for him to put the most pressure imaginable on Brussels to break the EU into tiny pieces.
How? It’s again, all about Germany.
When Nordstream 2 was announced and I was writing Gold Stock Advisor for Newsmax in 2013 I talked then about how the difference between how gold was accounted for between the ECB and the Fed. That put Germany squarely in the middle between the U.S. on one side and Russia on the other.
Russia and China still hadn’t signed the big deal for the Power of Siberia pipeline at the time. They are now working on Power of Siberia 2, which will open up the massive mineral deposits in Mongolia. So, even then, in my naïve way of seeing the world as a first-year geopolitical analyst, I understood that Russia’s foreign policy had to be focused on getting Germany to side with them versus the U.S.
The political establishment in Germany was never going to let that happen because under Obama Davos was running the operation to cleave Ukraine from Russia. To date, both have been partially successful. Both Ukraine and Germany are being torn apart from within as domestic leadership bows to internationals forces forcing them to pursue policies which go completely against their countries’ wishes and best interests.
So, now, fast forward to today. The day after the German elections brings a mess but with a highly likely outcome that the SPD will ally with the Greens and the FDP. With Christian Lidner (FDP) as Finance Minister (at least temporarily) we would have a German government at war with itself.
As Alex Mercouris brought up after I left the chat with Crypto Rich last week, the Greens are fracturing over the Russia issue. Part of them wants a restoration of good Russian relations, the other are neocon/Davos infiltrators trying to constantly move the goalposts on both Climate Change and geopolitics.
The SPD are pure Davos scum so expect nothing good from them. This is why I think Putin ‘shut off the taps’ the day after the election. Like everyone else, he can see what Davos is doing and doesn’t like it. So, in order for him to make his point he does exactly what he should: stop trading with those who have unofficially declared war on Russia and push the political scene in Germany to a breaking point.
Because here’s where this goes. Germany needs to either control the purse strings of the EU or it needs to leave the euro-zone and be independent of the sinking ship. Putin realizes that the best way to achieve this is to pour gasoline on a raging firestorm in the energy markets (oh, the humanity of the puns!) and remind German voters just who is truly responsible for their €2000/month electricity bills.
It’s not Putin. It’s Berlin. So, Berlin needs to sign off on Nordstream 2 and then ram it down the EU Commission’s throat. And they better do it soon because Winter is Coming, after all.
And they just voted for more of this while Merkel, who has been the biggest obstacle to AfD’s inclusion in any government, is leaving the scene. The CDU leadership got whacked across the board. Most of the big names will not be in the Bundestag this time around, so the party will be doing a lot of self-reflection and could finally become relevant again.
Inflation of the type Putin is ‘forcing’ on Europeans today is the type a country only recovers from with a political inversion. This is why today we’re seeing surprise rate hikes from Poland, for example. It’s why Serbia is begging Russia to increase gas supplies there and Hungary signed a 15-year deal to secure its energy future.
While there is no appetite for a political inversion in Germany today after last week’s vote, there will be in about 3 months if coalition talks stall. Because the ECB under Christine Lagarde cannot raise rates but is powerless to stop them rising ultimately if the market senses that there is no political leadership capable of reining it in.
That ship sailed a few months ago after the Fed called Lagarde’s hawkish bluff and actively drained more than $1 trillion from overseas dollar markets and just increased the capacity to drain even more, without tapering QE.
Now let’s go back to the Fed and Wall St. If there is a real backlash within some areas of the U.S. ‘big money’ against Davos which is showing up as Fed monetary policy, per my consistent analysis of the situation and events playing out to support it, then they are tacitly coordinating with Putin to give Germany what it wants, an excuse to leave the euro and conduct independent trade and energy policy.
Think about it. On the one hand the Fed is drying up dollars. On the other Putin is spiking energy prices making it impossible for Germany to fight inflation within the EU. On the third hand, China is cracking down on property speculation domestically, kicking out the foreign NGOs and reminding foreign investors that the rules in China are not the same as they are in the West.
You can and will lose all your money if you invest behind the Great Wall, as so many Evergrande bondholders just found out.
Now let’s square the entire circle. If Europe’s energy crisis is a constructed false flag event to spook capital, encourage speculators and effect political change, then can’t you make the same arguments for the concurrent fight on Capitol Hill regarding the Democrats, the debt ceiling and the spending bills?
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has been adamant that the Democrats do not need any help in passing a debt ceiling resolution. They can do it any time they want to. But, the Democrats won’t do this? Why? They are manufacturing a narrative that there is crisis on the horizon — default on U.S. bond payments.
This is the one outcome no investor wants to contemplate. So, the Democrats, like the Europeans, are arguing against themselves in order to blackmail the world into giving them their cookie or they will hold their breath until they collapse global markets.
Let me repeat. There is no debt ceiling crisis. There is no U.S. default crisis. There is only a bunch of Mafiosi on Capitol Hill doing what they’ve been told to do while purposefully scaring everyone into believing there is a crisis when none exists.
Do I have to invoke a classic Who song to make my point?
What’s the goal? Chaos and the continued undermining of faith in politics, capital markets, energy production and seizing supply chains as we approach the winter in the Northern Hemisphere where susceptibility to pesky things like the flu, the latest iteration of COVID-9/11 and blatant political bullshit swells like a boil on the back of a government bureaucrat blocking a permit for some basic, but eminently important thing.
That Putin came out and told the world he’s ready to work with Europe to do his part alleviating the energy supply problems in Europe I’ve not heard one encouraging word from those that would benefit from this the most.
Their silence is deafening.
And that brings me back to Germany where, unless this gets resolved quickly, the most likely downstream outcome is Germany leaving the euro, reinstitute the Deutsche Mark, watch it fall vs. the dollar in the near term but outcompete the euro.
With the euro in freefall after a disastrous Q3 close and German Bunds getting prepared for their next big sell-off, perhaps, maybe, for the first time in a long time, the markets are beginning to wake up from their central bank induced SOMA injections and get real with the possibilities that forces are now aligned to do the unthinkable, break up the EU.
But that only happens with a political inversion where the CDU/CSU ally with AfD and the FDP to form a real government after the current parties can’t form a coalition or any three-way coalition formed fails as inflation crushes the German middle class.
If the AfD were smart now they would be blaming all of this on Merkel’s moronic energy policy. Now we’re seeing calls for delaying shutting down Germany’s nuclear reactors. They can’t import enough coal to feed the plants. BASF has shut down ammonia production, so food production is threatened.
There is no Agenda 2030 on the horizon if Germans freeze to death in their homes or get decimated by COVID-9/11 because they can’t afford to heat their homes.
This will crush France and Macron, overthrow Davos at the mid-terms here in the states and break the European Union in the process.
Germany is the lynchpin to the entire Davos edifice. Without a compliant and beaten Germany there is no further Great Reset. A Germany that breaks from the euro becomes a Germany that realigns with Russia and Eastern Europe. It’s a Germany no longer hell bent on internal European mercantilism and the establishment of the Fourth Reich through the EUSSR.
The German people keep asking for that policy to end but aren’t given the options by their leadership to make that happen. Then again, they keep giving their leadership just enough power to forestall their having to make a real decision. That decision is coming at them, fast.
As it is everyone across the West in various guises.
So, as as Powell under extreme pressure to go full MMT retard with five little basis points, Putin, with a few million BTUs of gas, is forcing open fault lines in the aristocracy that thinks it deserves to run the world. Together, if they simply sit back and continue to do nothing, can bring down the whole rotten edifice.
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My understanding is that most gas is distributed byb pipeline and that the Russian pipelines are not all connected up, so it would not be so easy to switch gs supplies from one customr to another. Is this correct, and does anyone know any more about this?
Nordstream 2 is the issue David. The EU wants it only where they can control the price or force Gazprom to sell them
The pipeline. Its all bullshit. When Germans start freezing the pipeline will pump gas. The rest of the pipelines are working just fine
Off-topic: In your travels have you ever met a Russian libertarian?
I heard Russia is having difficulty filling their own reserves for the upcoming winter, let alone filling Europe’s. The winters have been getting colder, wetter and longer. It may not feel like a big change, but from a gas delivery standpoint it adds up. Add two weeks to the beginning of the heating season and two weeks to the end, plus cooler average temperatures and it wipes out inventories.
No doubt political agendas are also involved. Cold toes and rumbling bellies usually fix that.
Cheers.
The Germans overheat their homes and stores. Perhaps, they have to learn from the Brits to wear sweaters. BTW, little off subject, but could the Pandora papers be the trove of cocuments John McAfee promised would be released should he die of suspicious circumstances?
“This will crush France and Macron, overthrow Davos at the mid-terms here in the states…”
Unless there is a wave of new Republicans who aren’t the old ones who just go along, how is this going to happen? A Republican Congress with the same old folks isn’t going to do anything but maybe not do Davos’ work at breakneck speed. I’m a little fortunate in AZ to have Blake Masters running since he, much like JD Vance in OH, seems like he may be good, but it will take time to turn over the Republican congress to folks who oppose the Davos agenda.
Cletus. If you are in AZ you should realize the state is following the CA path toward renewables….
https://www.citizensjournal.us/arizona-and-california-race-toward-renewables/
German industry is very energy intensive, and German winters are generally much colder than France or Belgium, and much colder than Italy.
It doesn’t matter which political parties eventually form a government in Berlin, current (and projected) wind and solar technology are not going to cut it.
Nordstream III is inevitable. There is nothing Brussels or Washington DC can do about it. Very little Berlin can do — delaying nuclear phaseout will help, but won’t make up for coal plants.
No amount of white papers or silly Swedish tween whining can change this.
So how to play Germany leaving EU and cozying up with Russia?
I think all of this is so interesting and it follows Thomas Sowell’s descriptions of two types of visions, the “Unconstrained Vision” and the “Constrained Vision:. After reading the book, I think it is really helpful to look at all of one’s beliefs this way. The Unconstrained visionaries always present “solutions” whereas the Constrained visionaries insist there are “no solutions, only tradeoffs”.
A Conflict of Visions by Thomas Sowell (full audiobook)
https://youtu.be/JslO9HwFDmg
The Unconstrained vision was that global interconnectivity would usher in an era of world peace, because all parties are dependent on one another. It all sounds so logical and good, I have often spouted the same thing. However, the Constrained visionaries would have asked: “at what cost”?
And the cost appears to be “global fragility” as we are now seeing with the supply chain crisis:
Why Shortages Are Permanent: Global Supply Shortages Make Fantastic Financial Sense
Back in the good old days before globalization and financialization conquered the world, corporations lined up three reliable suppliers for every critical component, as this redundancy alleviated supply chain chokeholds.
And so now we’re all seated at the banquet of consequences flowing from stripping out redundancy and competition, and ceding control of supply chains to quasi-monopolies and cartels.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-shortages-are-permanent-global-supply-shortages-make-fantastic-financial-sense
And now we can see illustrated what Milton Friedman always warned about: “~great is the enemy good”. (single suppliers and just in time delivery are incredibly efficient, but at what cost?)
Historically, the current era may be a mirror of the Late Bronze Age… where all of the bronze making civilizations were dependent on Tin from Afghanistan. Once the Tin was cutoff that collapsed a bunch of other supply chains and the whole interdependent network of civilizations went with them:
Lessons From the Bronze Age Collapse
https://www.aier.org/article/lessons-from-the-bronze-age-collapse/
Sorry to clutter up the comments with links, but I can see a lot of this operating behind the scenes in Tom’s essay.
For what it is worth…
Poland taking charge of its own energy by building small modular nuclear reactors,. It will be fascinating to watch the horror on the European Greens as this moves forward. This is happing in other places in the world too. Makes sense because renewables have holes of inactivity.
https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/us-polish-nuclear-deal-in-line-with-governments-goals-says-min-24915
People forget (or don’t know) that nuclear reactors are heat sources to create steam for otherwise very conventional electric generation.
There are research projects and startups working toward a solution of direct energy from fusion. Here is some US research. There is also another govt site.
https://www.energy.gov/science/fes/articles/us-researchers-simulate-compact-fusion-power-plant-concept
I found a tech site with 5 or 6 startups. They are closer than we realize. It has been the Holy Grail since I can remember. Someone will crack it.
https://spectrum.ieee.org/amp/5-big-ideas-for-making-fusion-power-a-reality-2650279550
Indeed, nuclear reactors are a dangerous and expensive way to make hot water. What human institution is going to be around for 100,000 years to guard the waste sites?
Fusion power has been “only 40 years away” for many decades (ten?) and never gets any closer. It may not be a good basket for carrying all our eggs.
Fortunately Chicken Little is mistaken and the sky isn’t falling and the earth isn’t burning up from evil carbon dioxide. Hungry people shivering in dark houses will figure this out any day now. When they do, we are gonna see plenty of pitchforks and torches.
Things must’ve looked pretty grim after cutting so many trees and killing so many whales for a few decades of heat and light. I doubt anyone predicted the development of better energy sources, like coal and petroleum. But it happened anyway.
I speculate it will happen again.
There is no such thing as green energy. Every promotion of team tyranny is built on a false premise. In the case of global warming, rebranded to the inane climate change, the false premise is that the activities of human beings are dispositive to climate. This is a lie. Do we pollute? Yes. Do we destroy habitats? Of course. That however is a different proposition than it’s warmer or cooler therefore humans. Green energy is, like all the other prevarications, starts with a linguistic lie. All supposed green energy is entirely dependent on fossil fuel inputs for creation and maintenance, generally to a critical and, sometimes, egregiously wasteful degree, e.g. electric vehicle batteries. Putin land and CCP land really need to pull the plug on the $IMFS, because it is critical to advancing the cause of their adversaries who, by now, need to be crushed like the bug men and women they all are.
Great article!
The squabbling and misinformation over resources has been going on for some time.
Refer to my comment in your previous article. The same applies here.
Energy is currency or rather, currency is a proxy for energy. We’ve had this argument before and I know that you disagree.
Creating intrinsically worthless currencies from nothing, crypto or otherwise, and trading them for finite and diminishing energy resources is a bad deal for the supplier.
The Netherlands had a lot of gas. Now they have earthquakes.
Cheers.
H.
Dagmar voted Green again and and agrres that SPD and CDU are incompetent
Fossil Free Financing….
https://greencentralbanking.com/2021/09/16/us-representatives-fossil-free-finance-act/
No mention of nuclear.
I won’t sell my fur lined coat.
Save your books. Might be needed to keep warm.
if history proves you right that anti-globalist forces within the us, germany, and russia are coordinating to neuter davos in the us and break up the eu, not only is that a mammoth prediction but putin will go down as one of if not the greatest political strategist ever.
and we owe such forces, of which we have been a small part, a debt of gratitude for saving the world (for now – the rotting demonic cadavers aren’t going to give up) from their technocratic great reset dystopia.
Exactly.Lie:climate change,be very scared annd give your spiritual,psychological,economic,and political power to us-we are the unelected and elite who eat your stolen children.We will help you!!!!All is planned,see…..Kalergi Plan,Operation Lockstep,Plandemic the movie.Tech transfer to China starting in 1980’s?,U.S. Industry dismantled and transferred to China and now Mexico,flood our streets with highly addictive drugs like the newer and more addictive Fetanyl,attack the nuclear family and labor unions,allow cartels and monopolies even though illegal,allow VERY CONCENTRATED MEDIA OWNERSHIP,Falseflags like 9/11,Oklahoma City bombing,Sandyhook shooting,Nashville farcical r.v. Explosion,Many others-whatreallyhappened.com,Theinformedamerican,henrymakow.com,joyce-bowen blog.com=excellent details on historic pharmamob scams and deaths they caused=well documented and linked.
Anonymous….speaking of Putin…..
https://thesaker.is/the-world-according-to-vladimir-putin/
If history proves you right that anti-globalist forces within the US, Germany, and Russia are coordinating to neuter Davos in the US and break up the EU, not only is that a mammoth prediction but Putin will go down as one of if not the greatest political strategist ever.
And we owe such forces, of which we have been a small part, a debt of gratitude for saving the world (for now – the rotting demonic cadavers aren’t going to give up) from their technocratic great reset dystopia.
To be clear, there are no “good guys” in geopolitics – and more generally the heroes we expect to save us only exist in fiction unless we ourselves behave heroically – just that Putin is a more clever scumbag than the rest of them.
The Debt Ceiling debate in the US reminds me of the scene in Blazing Saddles where the newly arrived black Sheriff realises he doesn’t have the support of the people, so he takes a hostage … doom on Americans for gullibly falling for this terrorism what seems like every year.
https://youtu.be/dQrrqf-YamA?t=4m0s
Hey hey Tom did you ever expect this in LA under this level of pressure? https://summit.news/2021/10/08/los-angeles-county-sheriff-refuses-to-enforce-vaccine-mandate/
That guy has balls. These sheriffs put all law enforcement and military in canada to shame (except that one soldier who spoke out they court martialed while the officers asked for 20k raises).
Ok, I stand corrected, I hope, thanks guys: https://mounties4freedom.ca/
The Davos Great Reset WEF tyrants are simply the old Rockefeller Technocrats from the 1930s.
See Patrick Wood https://www.technocracy.news/.
https://youtu.be/lX7uFAsvpn8
After making a fortune in oil, Rockefeller created the Technocrats who decided to re-value each human by the energy that person consumes.
It’s interesting that a hundred years past the Great Depression–
– after the invention of the nuclear reactor providing potentially unlimited energy;
– after the invention and distribution of electricity itself that makes life so much easier;
– after building machines and fertilizers that produce more food than thought humanly possible…
…that a good part of the civilized world is on the verge of starving in the cold within a few weeks.
Here’s an excellent article/video that explains WHY the COVID-19 hoax was done- it’s all about the debt! The REAL reason for the vaccinations then is to reduce expenses (us “useless eaters”)!
https://theexpose.uk/2021/10/08/melissa-ciummei-we-have-been-fooled-into-believing-that-currency-is-money-people-have-this-idea-that-thats-my-money-in-the-bank-its-not/
Tom- your article offers hope the Great Reset will fail. But even if it does- it seems another Great Depression is inevitable.
It may be fun or ego soothing to speculate on European energy policy, but the war is over and Russia won years ago. Germany has no choice but to start nordstream II as soon as possible, and to begin negotiations for nordstream 3. The opinions of Brussels / Davos or Washington are irrelevant.
Winter is coming, literally and figuratively. People will freeze. Without the German economic machine, Brussels can’t even keep their lights on.
Restarting nuclear plants in Germany would be politically tricky. More importantly, it would be spring time before any could be made ready even if a cohesive government coalition had been elected a week ago. As Tom detailed, whatever coalition comes out of recent elections will be weak and fractured, probably not lasting very long. Whatever coalition will be in no position to order nuclear plant restarts.
Next year, nuclear plants will be restarted — to hell with the Greens. But that only solves part of the energy problem. The other part will be coal or nordstream 3, again to hell with the Greens. Freezing people and closed factories will decide.
It’s the economy dumbkopf…
Europa, Russia, Winter – this script seems somehow familiar
Germany’s fate was decided long ago, I don’t know why Tom is still “analyzing” it. Germany is now dependent on Russian nat gas, its a done deal.
The next geopolitical question is whether, and really when, China invades Taiwan.
The benefits to China and to the CCP are enormous. Time (waiting) is not on China’s side (Chinese demographics, pathetic and failed leadership in Washington, multinational corporations diversifying out of China). Australia may or may not get its own nuke subs in five years (plausible but very unlikely), however Aussie ports easily will be ready to host Aussie or US subs by then — cutting off China from the Indian Ocean and energy supplies. The next 2-3 years offer China the best opportunity to take Taiwan, and the next chance after that could be decades away.
Like the parasites in Europe, Taiwan talks a big game yet spends less than 2% on its own defense. Taiwan is not capable of putting up a fight. Japan has its own islands it can’t defend. South Korea is technically still at war with north (with China backing). Talk is cheap, the US would be on its own trying to stop China. Biden is deeply unpopular, has dementia, and is surrounded by incompetence and corruption.
We see the US pulling several F117 out of mothballs, while a US nuclear submarine collided with “something” (classified) in South China Sea, Meanwhile Chinese fighter planes, bombers and electronic warfare planes are brazenly probing Taiwan’s defenses. Both sides see the writing on the wall.
It’s going down for sure. Whether Taiwan is the beginning is unknown but likely. Who joins in the fight to begin with probably will have reinforcements later. Japan is allied and committed to Taiwan defense. US IS at the back. China will need a blitzkrieg otherwise everyone will pile on and smother them completely. Take out the US before we can properly respond and they’re free. Timeline for action is running out on them. Hopefully they don’t try it.
A considerable amount of Chinese wealth is invested in the US and other western venues. China is also dependent on outside suppliers for food and energy.
But, never discount the ambitions of totalitarian thugs and their willingness to let fellow citizens pay the price.
It’s certainly a useful manufactured crisis for the Davosians.
The national leaders they installed are imbeciles, and those outside their control have been made to look like villains.
Why do that?
Because we won’t beg for global leadership until we have lost faith in national leadership.
I would suggest they have worked for decades to break down national borders and foster uncontrolled immigration to that end – The Coudenhove-Kalergi Plan
And to ensure unskilled and poorly-educated migrants further damage the national identity of host countries by maintaining their own cultural practices (multiculturalism) while leeching off the host countries in order to overwhelm their welfare systems – The Cloward-Piven Plan.
All of this done to destroy national identity and faith in national leadership, so that humanity eventually agrees to global governance.
The Davosians have built a technogulag out the back of our global theatre, painted the words FIRE EXIT over the connecting door, and having lit fires throughout the building are now standing next to the door with a flashlight, herding us to “safety”.
P.S – Cryptocurrency is not our revolution. It’s theirs.
Why do you propose that the Fed is working against the interests of Davos?
The Fed is privately owned and has never been audited by the US Gov
It has been said that Wall St Banks own the shares and thus the owners of these banks
Isn’t it likely that the owners of the banks are working with Davos in order to create a new system that they control prior to the debt pyramid collapsing?
What about these huge capital funds like black rock buying up everything?
Until Davos let it slip that they no longer needed the commercial banks in their great reset of everything and that it is the IMF and ECB that would run things. That didn’t sit well with Wall St. and City of London.
That’s where the split is.
They are perfectly happy to run things, but not turn the world over to Eurotrash Commies.
You think that in their glossily-produced promotional video for the long-term subjugation of humanity they “let it slip” that their plan involved the disintermediation of the major shareholders of most of the world’s central banks? The Davosians accidentally made enemies of people with great power and influence?
Omniscient they are not. But Keystone Cops they ain’t.
The Davosian families that run the big banks simply no longer require the fiction of a network of individual central banks, now their global technogulag is within their grasp. Central banks have served their purpose and can be folded into a global central bank. The BIS, or perhaps some new entity.
Indeed I would say that the reason they have emerged from the shadows and are no longer trying to conceal these activities is that they know they cannot be stopped.
The lion only breaks cover when the prey cannot escape.
or when it has no other option and it’s beginning to starve.
What do you make of Omarova’s appointment?
https://www.aier.org/article/end-banking-as-we-know-it/
“…an ardent critic of both the current banking system and cryptocurrencies.”
Let me guess…………………….”Oops we accidentally appointed someone who wants to disintermediate all commercial banks and ban private crypto”?
Where was Wall St on that one?
Allow me to offer an interpretation.
The key players on Wall St own the Fed. And the Fed (like all central banks) is about to be folded into the BIS or some new global entity, where Wall St has been promised it will have a seat at the global governance table.
At which point private crypto will be banned and their own version will be launched – Diem.
And then you’ll get your BIS account with your UBI, paid in Diem (probably with a negative interest rate to “encourage” you to spend it)
And now Nuland is in Moscow, doing another “Join us or die” dance on behalf of the Davosians.
We are about to get a demonstration of how the Great Game is no more, and an insight to whether Putin will take his seat at the Davosian table, or die in a ditch defending Russian national interests.
For those stuck in the old “Great Game” paradigm, the next few weeks might blow their minds.
Nuland is in Moscow getting the run around and will be sent home with nothing to show for it.
We’ve already gotten the signal 100 times over that Putin isn’t playing their game, Ivor. This is you so far out over your skis you’re upside down.
The Russians are not fucking around with these people anymore and have openly threatened them with war over Ukraine. You can keep thinking the shadow play means more than it does but one day you’ll finally look away.
Nuland admitting Minsk is the only way forward in Ukraine is a capitulation moment to ensure there is no war in Europe.
the U.S. is being realigned to fight a war with China. That’s why she’s there. And she got nothing from Russia, which may have been part of the plan, but it only further strengthens my thesis that Davos is picking a fight between the US and China to save Europe.
Well yes, there are at least two possibilities.
1) Nuland is “Just Another Neocon” and is there fluffing Putin as a representative of a dying culture, whose moves in the Great Game are increasingly resembling clown car diplomacy.
In which case Putin will laugh in her face once she’s done.
2) She’s a Davosian messenger telling Putin it’s time to “Join or die”
In which case Putin may respond in a way that surprises you.
But here’s the thing.
If it’s the first, that doesn’t mean a real Davosian messenger won’t be sent to Putin one day soon with exactly that message
So either you’re wrong, or I’m not right yet.
I accept that’s a convenience for me, so I’m on the lookout for what will falsify my theory. Are you on the lookout for what will falsify yours?
I love how you put a false choice in front of me and then think you’re winning something. Simply put Ivor there are plenty of other options here that you refuse to admit to. And that is why this conversation is completely pointless.
Hmm… 100 days come and gone. Still here? Still peddling bullshit. I’m at the point sir where you are simply a troll with zero life or a deep state actor attempting to undermine me because I am too close to the truth.
Please, stop talking for a minute, do some fucking meditation or take a walk in the sun. Your fear is palpable and it has robbed you of your reason.
I made clear that there are AT LEAST two possibilities – there are presumably others. And I hang out here precisely BECAUSE I think you are close to the truth.
But your paranoia is showing – I’m neither a troll nor a paid actor. I’m just someone with a different theory who thinks that your analysis is good but proceeding from a false premise, and am hoping that once it becomes clear that’s the case you’ll tweak your foundations and better analysis will emerge.
Which I look forward to reading and finding helpful.
And I don’t think I’m any more fearful than those of your readers that accept your analysis as it is – I just think you are fighting the last war, and I’m hoping to learn how to fight the next one.
Not everyone that disagrees with you is your enemy Tom – stop presuming malice.
The Fed pays dividends to the member banks who own stock….
https://newrepublic.com/article/116913/federal-reserve-dividends-most-outrageous-handout-banks
Test
Estimates (if we are honest with ourselves, *guesses*) vary, but somewhere between 30-40% of the USA military is understandably refusing to get covid shots. It’s not any 30%, according to the pentagon itself, it’s the most experienced and best trained personnel who have realized Washington DC considers them expendable.
After Biden / Austin abandoned US citizens in Afghanistan, this is impossible to dispute. Before that failure… the willful and deliberate neglect of veterans at V.A. hospitals should have been a big clue. Even the most obedient jarheads are seeing the light now.
This skill drain and brain drain, from a military led by halfwits at the pentagon and a dementia president, is like a beacon to every Chinese general and politician dreaming of invading Taiwan.
Maybe joint chief Milley will email the US counter strike plans to his Chinese military friends.
Any Chinese leader who wants to take Taiwan would be sending regular aircraft incursions into Taiwan airspace, logging defense radar locations and frequencies, logging anti-aircraft missile positions, etc. they would send PLAN ships close to Taiwan, noting defense behavior and response times. They would use satellite imagery to locate air fields and places to land paratroopers. They would be noting small harbors where flotilla of soldiers could land without the need for billion dollar amphibious carriers the USA relies on — or did before the smartest / highest skilled personnel quit or were discharged by a demented commander in chief.
In short, China would be doing exactly what they are doing now. China isn’t even trying to conceal their intentions, they are literally announcing it in official publications.
So everyone in the USA should get ready to act shocked and surprised when China does exactly what they said they would do. No one could have seen this coming. And so on. You can’t expect the CIA to connect the dots for a measly $90 billion, even when China is publicly connecting the dots for them.
Prepare to act surprised!
Yes it looks bad.
Do you think they will simultaneously act in other theatres? Some diversionary act of economic, currency or cyberwar elsewhere?
And is Taiwan a goal, a strategy, or a tactic?
By taking Taiwan, CCP achieves several things:
1) promise (to retake Taiwan) made, promise kept. People inside and outside China will take other CCP promises more seriously
2) Taiwan semiconductor is no longer available to supply the USA economy (and all those fancy weapons systems the pentagon likes need chips too). Depending how things go, China might conscript TSMC engineers to benefit Chinese chip making
3) most important to China, countries along China’s one belt one road initiative will see Washington cannot defend Afghanistan or Taiwan, so y’all had better toe the Beijing line.
4) the US dollar, and Washington DC, gets all sorts of benefits from being the global reserve currency. Part of that is having a huge economy, part is a flight to safety. If Washington draws a line in the sand / pacific, but is unable to actually protect it, then how safe is the US dollar?
Taiwan itself doesn’t matter. it’s a nice political win for Chinese bureaucrats, but the knock on effects of Washington being unable to stop China are far far greater.
Imagine what South Korea and Japan will think?
And for Americans outside of Washington DC, we are already seeing first hand that Washington doesn’t care about us at all, and considers us all to be domestic terrorists. If you are a left winger and think your are not also domestic terrorists, just try defying an edict from DC and see how fast you get relabeled — or ask the two Democrat senators who got chased into a bathroom and harassed on his boat. You are one disobedient uttering away from also being labeled a terrorist.
America will not rise to honor the empty promise of some lying politicians. I don’t see any reason why we should, even if we can find Taiwan on a map. What will Taiwan do if we ignore them? Offshore more US industry?
Thanks.
I must admit that I see 4) as the most immediately consequential – to my mind the CCP have posed a Damoclean threat to the dollar’s reserve currency status for a long time, and I expect them to soon stage a currency coup (gold revaluation?) to have the Yuan used in global trade instead of the dollar. Perhaps the CCP will copy Roosevelt and enact a compulsory purchase scheme at $10,000/oz? Would the Chinese people comply?
If the dollar loses its status and starts to evaporate from global trade, the currency will all flood home and cause serious domestic price inflation, surely?
How will the US soak it all up without choking? I guess it could pour into shale or one of the other industrial dollar heatsinks………..?
Chinese media outlets reported today (Monday) that the PLA had conducted mock landings and training exercises on Chinese beaches directly across from Taiwan — similar geography, similar ocean conditions, etc.
Hundreds of armored vehicles were launched from ships offshore, and successfully landed. Obviously it was just a training exercise, no one was shooting at them from the beaches. No one was shooting at allied forces when they trained for d-day. The point remains: China proved through action (not political rhetoric) they are able to conduct an amphibious landing.
If (when) they invade Taiwan, some landing craft may be sunk by chronically underfunded Taiwanese military. But 30-40% will get through and be able to take Taiwan.
Presumably China would also send a flotilla of fishing boats into Taiwanese ports, as the British did under heavy fire at Dunkirk. The Taiwan strait is very similar to English Channel. More than half will get through and land Chinese troops.
Presumably China would drop paratroopers all over Taiwan. Presumably Chinese helicopters will ferry troops into Taiwan. Again, more than half will land.
For decades, Taiwan has spent the bare minimum on its own military, instead expecting US blood to be shed. Taiwan focused on gaining trade advantages and offshoring US jobs.
Taiwan is a small island. Chinese troops fought US troops, under command of competent Douglas McCarthur, to a stalemate in Korea. It won’t take Chinese troops long to control Formosa. US troops would have to retake the island, with China controlling ports and airstrips. They would be doing so under command of generals who executed the afghan withdrawal, and a bunch of wokesters at the pentagon.
Thanks to covid shot mandates, 30% of the US military (non wokesters) will have been discharged. Political appointees will be manning turrets, screaming about the lack of Starbucks and avacado toast.
Most Americans can not find Taiwan on a map. Washington DC promised to defend Taiwan, not the USA. Washington also promised not to raise taxes, not to force mandated shots, they promised to provide VA hospital care, FEMA promised to clean up after Katrina and Sandy, regulators promised to arrest bank CEOs, the FBI promised they wouldn’t break the law repeatedly trying to overthrow Trump. Courts said no one is above the law, and then exonerated Hilary and Comey and Milley and Fauci for all manner of unspeakable crimes.
Taiwan is about to learn Washington DC lies constantly. As for the rest of the USA, I don’t see Taiwan coming to our aid ever. Taiwan outsourced our industries. Most Americans can’t find Taiwan on a map, and those who can have no interest.
Although you do have some good points… It seems you have some bias. You’ve stated the strengths and advantages of only one side and weaknesses only of the other. This is well written communist propaganda. It’s written to demoralize the side who will very soon be embarking on a difficult and dangerous war. Hubris leading to tragedy.
My family has/had numerous members who served in just about every conflict. A few were enlisted, most officers of varying ranks, up to (one) full colonel. We have one person who didn’t serve, who works in software development. The two that served (honorably discharged) in Afghanistan/Iraq are warning the one currently serving about the danger of going to war over a stupid island under the command of morons.
Fighting for your country, freedom, and truth justice and the American way…. All fantastic concepts until bullets fly by. After that you fight for your brothers (aka your company) and you fight to get home safe. You spend a lot of time figuring out which commander is competent, and which commander’s orders should be “received a little late, after action”. Ignoring orders is a crime, receiving orders late is the fog of war.
US veterans know China is on home turf. US veterans saw the Afghan retreat first hand, not on CNN. And US veteran families know first hand the VA is currently neglecting troops from the Korean conflict, Vietnam, Iraq parts I & II, and Afghanistan. That isn’t Chinese propaganda, it’s day to day life.
Recent vets cannot believe joint chief Milley called Chinese military instead of his own chain of command. There is no evidence— just MSNBC/CNN propaganda— that Trump would have launched anything. Milley made that up. If there was any substance at all, Milley should have contacted VP Pence, SecDef, SecState, and the ranking members of Congress. That is well established procedure. Why the $#*% would Milley call China first?
Now Jake Sullivan, who special council Mueller unintentionally linked to the russia gate coup, is NSC. Milley remains JC. Commanders at PACCOM have been wokester-ized by SecDef Austin. And CinC Biden still has dementia. That is who will be mismanaging any action in Taiwan. Obama’s disastrous foreign policy team will be advising.
You sir, have been watching way too much MSNBC/CNN propaganda — and not paying attention to the failed command structure at the pentagon and White House.
This is a reply to “Ed”… my first attempt did not get accepted, or at least Tom didn’t post it.
I understand what “James Bond” is saying, but not from a military angle. We have all worked in the private sector for different companies and different bosses.
Sometimes, you believe in the company, its mission, and “the boss”. You willingly work overtime. You suggest ways to make it even better. You talk the company up to your family and friends.
Sometimes, the company is messed up. The boss is only interested in lining his own pocket, workers be damned. You might tolerate such a company if you can’t get a different job or you need the medical benefits. But you are just going through the motions. Your heart is not in it.
The exact same “employees” in the US military who fight for a cause they believe in (rightly or wrongly), under leaders they believe in… will dominate. Especially when they fight on home turf.
Soldiers who called Biden “Bite Me” when Obama was President and before Bite-Me got dementia, may go through the motions but they won’t care about the mission. They would be fighting for an island most can’t find on a map, for a president who neglects the VA and veterans. They would be led by a wokester Secretary of Defense.
The same US military that fought and won TWO wars simultaneously in 1940-45, fought to a stale mate less than a decade later in Korea. The same military got chased off the roof of its own embassy a decade after that. The same military wiped out the Iraqi army in a few weeks when they believed they were liberating Kuwait and stopping WMDs. A decade or so later, the same military defeated the Taliban in a matter of weeks, then Iraq again in weeks. That same military, same people just as an occupation force, was defeated in both theaters over the next decade or so.
It matters if people believe in a cause. It matters if they respect their boss / leader. China would defeat the US military in Taiwan — because its not our island, and our current leadership are liars out to line their own pockets. Even the taliban can defeat the US military under bad leadership and bad causes.
If China fought the US in other circumstances (a cause the US citizenry believes in and/or competent military leaders) — China would be in serious trouble.
That isn’t bias. That’s human nature.
Holden, I’m sorry if your comment slipped through the cracks. Thank you for sticking it out. I try to approve things as they come in, but WP doesn’t always notify me.
Bond,. I don’t have substantial disagreement with you. I do know that a communist attack on a democracy which is supported by US will be a very dangerous situation and my feeling is that if limited (or unlimited) war doesn’t occur at that time we’ll be lucky. Lucky to be able to understand that SHTF, and we have time to get ready. It will occur otherwise in another theater.
Limited war or shameful retreat will change our lives rapidly and drastically. Full war is difficult to comprehend what our fate will be. For the reasons you’ve already stated and which I have no substantial argument with. It is tempting for CCP, given their rise and our current very public failures. But we know they cannot win but merely make everyone the loser.
Unless you’d prefer their governance. I would contend ours is superior. Both sides are heavily infested with rot and they’ll be hindered greatly as will we. Don’t overestimate their corruption and lack of ability. Yes, we are heavily infested with rotten corruption too. Both sides will suffer terribly.
Reply to Holden:. Thanks and I agree. But I don’t think a war such as we shall shortly experience will go according to plan and people won’t have the luxury of choosing how comfortable they’ll be with it. It’s not going to be an optional war of superpower vs little “bad guy”. It has the potential to be the greatest conflict in human history, worthy of historical precedent far beyond our life time. We can hope it doesn’t happen.
James…I saw your new movie this past weekend. Marvelous as always. Notable that the lethal DNA modification bioweapon was written into script in 2016. Prescient.
Despite labor shortages all over the place, the stupid ice cream tyrant’s illegal shot mandate is going to lay off at least 30% of all US workers. Many businesses will simply shut down; a far greater number will be forced to limit supply of absolutely everything.
Biden’s edicts are not law, they are executive edicts. Its not at all clear they are legal. I’m not holding my breath for corrupt federal judges to enforce the Constitution, but you never know.
After Biden finally kicks the bucket or is forced out… these illegal layoffs will result in the mother of all wrongful termination lawsuits. Many businesses will be ruined from the resulting litigation damages.
Southwest Airlines (under the founder) spent decades nurturing a good relationship with its employees. The “new” CEO has destroyed all trust. Even if workers return, trust is gone now. Southwest Air is in the news for screwing up, but many businesses with positive teamwork will be ruined by weak CEOs afraid to stand up to illegal edicts from a dementia patient.
Inflation is not transitory. Supplies in everything are already tight, and the situation is going to get much worse. The US is headed into DEEP recession in the 4th quarter, caused 100% by Biden’s illegal edict.
The energy crisis will also get worse (world wide), as Biden’s regime is run by left wing extremists and Obama’s foreign policy rejects.
Tom, don’t know if it’s you starting to censor, or if it is website technical difficulties…. But you are missing many comments
No I’m just late with approving comments, Holden. Sorry.
Tom, you are missing a lot of comments.
The next gen green energy grid comes with strings attached. All home battery storage systems will be required to be registered in the new vision so that the grid can suck some of your stored power when it needs power. Many details starting to be unveiled about the new world….
https://www.citizensjournal.us/electrification-of-society-requires-a-new-and-smarter-grid/
This chart and accompanying data appears to show that US has never stopped importing petrol products from Russia…contrary to political bloviating…
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTIM_NUS-NRS_1&f=M
Hi Tom, big fan, been lurking and listening to your podcast for a while. I recently discovered something (well.. 2 somethings) that I want to share with you. Take a look at these two Russia-focused blogs. They talk about covid rules and various other Russia-relatd issues and the thesis of both bloggers is that Russia isn’t as anti-Davos as one might think, and so I immediately thought of you.
Browse around.. would love to know what you think..
https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/
https://anti-empire.com/russia-is-rapidly-adopting-qr-codes-how-does-this-end/