From the Notebook Posts are reworks of posts made for my Patrons. This one is from September 27th.
The German elections are done and dusted. The results are both discouraging and oddly uplifting. Before I get too deep into the analysis I’m going to note a few things that stand out The direct link to the German Gov’t results site is here.
Observations of the vote totals:
- Die Linke collapsed into the actual vote. They barely squeaked into any seats at all in the Bundestag, needing either 5% of First Votes or winning 3 of the standing constituency seats. They fulfilled exactly both requirements which smacks of collusion between the left parties to ensure that DL got the 3 seats in case they didn’t crack 5%.
- The Greens also collapsed into the vote itself after polling as high as 17% in the final polls and 25% earlier this year. There was definitely some consent manufacturing going on with the polling firms or at least this points out some methodological flaws in the polling.
- The Greens’ slide may also be a leading indicator of German sensitivity to rising energy prices. Going Green is all well and good if it doesn’t cost anything. Otherwise, ‘drill, baby, drill,’ because “Baby, it’s cold outside…”
- The CDU and SPD combined formed a weak plurality, with the worst performance by the CDU ever.
- This leaves any coalition government Olaf Scholz (SPD Leader) puts together will be very unstable.
- Davos manipulated events to get Scholz across the line so I expect him to eventually win out.
- Both AfD and the FDP underperformed their polling, suggesting that the CDU is still far stronger than the press and the pollsters would have you believe.
- AfD is a non-factor at the national level because they were ineffectual opposition during this past government allowing Merkel to ruin the country.
- At best, the SPD has a this majority similar to what the Democrats won with here in the U.S. but because they are all insufferable leftists they will try and push an agenda through with the biggest lurch left in Germany since before the Reichstag fire.
Now onto what the layout of the Bundestag will look like:
Zerohedge has a great map of the potential coalition scenarios:
Observations on the Bundestag:
- CDU and SPD traded seats, -50 to +53…. swing voters shifted against the current government but still wanted no real change at the top.
- The Greens mostly cannibalized from Die Linke while getting some overhang seats because of the nigh-impenetrable way Germany’s proportional representation works.
- This will be a bigger Bundestag than 2017’s by it looks like 23 seats, which mostly went to the Greens.
- The only viable ‘Leftist’ coalition is SPD/Green/FDP (Traffic Light) because Die Linke performed so poorly.
- Nominally, the SPD would lead the government, but the Greens’ dominance in the Bundesrat, thanks to Merkel, will set policy of any government that forms, if one forms at all.
- If one forms, Germany’s future is now pro-EU, all Pro-Davos and all anti-German growth / dynamism even with the FDP part of the coalition.
- Merkel couldn’t get the ‘Jamaica’ coalition together in 2017, so why would anyone think Armin Laschet will be able to pull that off since he lost his standing constituency election?
- A coalition with the CDU/Greens/FDP is, I think, unworkable.
- The pivotal figure/kingmaker is now Christian Lidner, head of the FDP, who are the closest thing to pro-small business, classic liberals of previous generations left in Europe that I can tell.
- Lidner, if he is smart, will realize he has a strong hand to play but unless he gets to appoint the Finance Minister the FDP is irrelevant. Davos will not allow this, in my opinion.
- That makes the FDP the opposite of the Greens, ideologically, because Marxists hate the middle class more than they hate anything else.
- The Greens and FDP have clashed in the past at the state level.
- No one will speak to AfD about a coalition, the German political establishment are refusing to even entertain the idea.
- The CDU/AfD/FDP coalition would be the most stable (371 seats). Proof Positive Davos runs Germany and German voters are far more conservative than the government they will get.
- AfD increased their standing constituency wins by a lot. from just 3 in 2017 to 16 in 2021 (see below).
- This makes AfD a far more regionally important party than it was in 2017 and still a dangerous x-factor going forward.
- By contrast the Greens only won 12 first votes.
Moreover, the second vote, straight party preference was even more telling as AfD’s leading territory is even bigger than its wins and they pulled strong 2nd place finishes southeast of Berlin and south of Hanover.
The key now will be getting a government formed, which will take a while. The Presidency will likely stay with Frank-Walter Steinmeyer, an SPD man and member of the German political elite, so don’t expect any pro-freedom interference there. I suspect, however, Germans wouldn’t stand for Steinmeyer openly acting like Mattarella does in Italy on behalf of Davos if it came to that.
The FDP, if they are smart, will drive a hard bargain on joining any coalition and keep their eye wary of what the German electorate reacts to policy-wise in 2022. They could see the results coalescing around the CDU and SPD in this election as the fear reaction it was. But, once things degrade further that’s when people make radical changes to their positions, that’s when minor parties can supplant and invest major ones.
How do you think we elected Trump here in the U.S.? Hint: it wasn’t Russian fraud, it was good ol’ fashioned voter frustration.
This brings me to the most interesting but least obvious scenario, especially if Germany continues to see energy hyperinflation this winter. What if the FDP refuses to form any coalition with either the CDU or the SPD? What if Lidner forces Merkel to put together a caretaker government for months while a re-vote is organized?
Merkel stays in power, which Davos loves, but there is no agenda on the table and only further degradation occurs.
It doesn’t work to the FDP’s advantage to form a government into a collapsing German economy to take the blame for it. Better to hang the people who brought this about with this debacle around their necks. He can literally campaign now against the Greens and Merkel’s record while proclaiming Scholz isn’t a strong enough leader to take Germany forward.
Becoming part of the ruling coalition right now may wind up being the worst possible thing a party leader could do for its long-term survival when the country is so close to a political inversion, which has been building for the last decade.
The narratives surrounding COVID-9/11, energy, vaccination, supply chain breakdowns and inflation are all accelerating into this winter which should accelerate changes within the German electorate.
Merkel spent five months after the 2017 election trying to get a coalition together, so don’t expect Steinmeyer to jump back to that well quickly. Negotiations will go on for a long time and that only plays into the minor parties’ hands. The longer it goes on, the more Lidner can up his price for any coalition.
This is not bullish for the Greens or the major parties. AfD and FDP should then be in a position to flip the larger parties.
It’s doesn’t take a genius to see that no matter what happens in the next few months that anyone who tries to push the Davos agenda forward from here will face a big backlash from middle-class, conservative German voters.
Saving the world from Climate Change is all fine and dandy when someone else is paying the bill.
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Nicely put.
If Laschet was more creative and less ofa clown, he’d steal the thunder of AfD and bring them into a coalition with the FDP. “Germany loves the EU, but the EU needs a strong Germany to be aneffective EU.”
Laschet’s administration would bring folks like Prof. Hendrick Streeck, a sober and reasonable virologist and minister of NRW to the table to displace the clown-posse Merkel brought to the COVID advisory circle who, while more reasonable than advisors in Italy and France, nevertheless have though their COVID policies seriously wounded the German Mittelstand and small businesses.
Desperate times, desperate measures.
in short: communism and fakevirus-plandemic-scam-terrorists won (there are no viruses at all, they just don’t exist). german ppl like it. 3rd time socialism within 1 century, YEAH!!
the only chance i see for the last liberal (in germany one can still use this word) wreckage is the party basis of fdp, but not the leaders. lindner himself said fdp had the strictest climate-change-(hoax-)goals in their party program (i don’t read party programs). so hope for pressure from the basis. by the way….of course the election was rigged and the censorship and terror against opponents of the regime (i. a. afd) were (and still are) horrendous. they say there’s more censorship in germany than north korea (really!). BUT! even w/o this fraud the outcome would not change very much because the stupid german ppl is so massively brainwashed, i just don’t understand how a human can be living so deep in the matrix.
do you see it? there’s no man made co2-related warming and there is no fucken virus. it’s both purely imaginary. be ready for that virus-narrative to fall in 2022 at the latest, maybe this could even be a christmas present, as dr stefan lanka told us as he refuted virology once again, his control experiments are done. we will see. i don’t think the brainwashed german ppl will be ready in 2021 for the narrative to fall.
apart from this very interesting and enlighting as usual. you won’t find that kind of analysis in german media.
I don’t believe so.
The Davosian agenda is to get their pet Merkel away from this Teutonic clown car before it flies apart and showers her with shrapnel. Maybe she’ll have a Eyes Wide Shut party of her own like Barry Soetero, while she waits for her invite to sit at the Davosian top table? *shudder*
This is the final piece of the national leadership crisis puzzle they needed to make their global governance agenda look appealing, with the added bonus of the way it will feed back into a supranational leadership crisis within the EUSSR.
You can look around the world and see leadership crises simultaneously erupting across the D10. All old Western power structures are failing at the same time. Almost as if we are witnessing a controlled demolition /sarc.
And yet despite Davosian globalists producing promotional videos (!) about how they can be trusted to save us all from………..national leadership crises amidst global problems, you still think of them as bumblers on the brink of defeat.
Wherever he is, I expect Mackinder is rolling his eyes. And Brzezinski is ROFL.
Bumblers? Not quite. Self obsessed, petty, vengeful I’ll grant you. They obviously take the very long view. But that has its inherent limitations, when coupled with the complexity of real world actions. Especially generation to generation.
Generating chaos is far easier than predicting/controlling its out comes.
Since you mention Mackinder, do you remember why his doctrine
concerning the “World Island” and the pivot was so important? Keeping Eurasian integration at bay, has been a cornerstone of imperial policy for generations.
The Chinese are in the processes of upending that with their belt and road project.
It isn’t just the Davosians and those behind them, who are moving pieces in the shadows. By spring, we should have a better view of what is to come. But its likely to be a long Dark Winter, between now and then.
Indeed – a Dark Winter. I wonder what Cyber Polygon tells us about Davosian intentions?
Notwithstanding, this is the heart of my disagreement with Tom – from crypto to geopolitics, I would argue Tom is fighting the last war. He looks around and sees merely a continuation of the Great Game, with some overambitious megalomaniacs shooting for the moon.
Whereas I see the Great Game having been replaced long ago with a co-ordinated effort to establish a global technogulag for humanity – a movement for global governance that has barely put a foot wrong for decades in its pursuit of manufactured chaos – the hobgoblin that its Great Reset aims to save us from. Global monetary theory and policy has clearly been co-ordinated very successfully to bring us to the brink of NIRP, MMT, UBI and global crypto, for example. The death of money, if not also democracy. Tom thinks crypto will save us, but I think they invented it – it is their revolution, not ours.
Tom looks around and sees competition. I see co-operation.
Tom thinks that the Davosians are on the brink of defeat, and I think they are on the brink of success. Tom sees my position as showing a lack of faith in humanity, whereas I see his as revealing a lack of faith in anything else.
As you say, time will tell. But I think you and Tom are wrong about how hard it is to control chaos, if you have manufactured it. Allow me to set a fire in a theatre and with just a flashlight I can get the panicking room of theatregoers to leave the smoke-filled room by whichever door I prefer.
The dupes and stooges of the Davosians have marched through all our institutions and are well-positioned to hand over power when the time comes, at which point we are in a new game.
I call it Brownshirts vs Browncoats.
I would argue Tom is fighting the last war…
I think the difference is that Tom is looking for the fractures where you see a solid edifice.
Some examples of previously solid looking edifices:
1] First Roman Triumvirate – Caesar, Pompeii & Crassus – split.
2] American Revolution – split into bitterly irreconcilable parties within about a decade.
3] Russian Revolution – split into Leninists, Trotskyists and Conservatives.
4] Allied Powers before WWII – split and couldn’t deal with Hitler (and after the war, they fractured even more).
5] Soviet Union – split – super power to zero in a few years.
And on an on the list goes.
While I agree with your bleak assessment about current conditions (it was immaterial to the peasants during the “great collectivization” that the CP was internally at war and about to undergo a great terror and purge), but I also agree with Tom about the inevitability of the fractures. All IMHO.
The new leader of Germany is named Viktor Zubkov. He is the Chairman of Gazprom.
Yes. Russia playing the energy card brilliantly…
https://www.dw.com/en/europeans-brace-for-hard-winter-as-energy-price-surge-hits-households/a-59246714
The stage is set for a geopolitical eruption this winter. The collapse of the CDU leaves Europs strongest economy in political chaos amid the worst energy crisis since the end of WW2. Russia holds all the energy cards and can force the EU to recognize its Crimea annexation and remove all sanctions. Otherwise,no gas is. The stage is set for China to attack and occupy Taiwan, NK to invade SK, Russia to reclaim the Ukraine. Israel and SA to attack and destroy Iran’s nuclear reactors. All while Biden’s woke military are employed in imposing mandates, masks, CRT and sensitivity training while training women for combat.
Absolutely nothing you say will happen.
Jasper is a troll. he/she-it just keeps writing nasty insults toward everyone, seemingly trying to anger other commenters.
Its nice that Tom isn’t censoring like Google, but maybe trolls should be told to behave or go echo other trolls on google
Pew research recently released a study concluding that 70% f white liberals have serious mental issues. Perhaps, you should spend your time with a therapist rather than making innane comments here, or, perhsps, that’s how you get yout ChiCom master to fill your little rice bowl. In which case you have my sympathy.
Tom is the only one on here who says anything remotely intelligent. The rest are pretty lame/delusional. Definitely not worth chatting with/to.
Thank you Jasper, but I do think many of the comments are thoughtful and insightful. Some are thoughtful but completely wrong, however, based in false assumptions or the over indulgence of fear.
More honey, less vinegar I’ve found is the right balance, however.
Why does jasper read the comments section if it actually believes the comments are worthless and Tom is the only intelligent writer?
Surely jasper must have better things to do with his enormous intellect than read the ramblings of us mud covered masses. Jasper should be on a college campus arguing minutia with other self proclaimed intellectuals.
Jasper reads the comments religiously, and adds insults to garner attention for himself. It’s an adult temper tantrum.
No one in its life listens to jasper (does it have anyone?), so it desperately seeks attention from strangers online.
a big THANK YOU to your Germany video put out tonight and Davos! very eloquently explained. Now I have a clear understanding of what’s going on. I didn’t realize the Powel would hike rates to bring down the Eurozone. Never thought of it that way.
Please bring more videos, your insights are very revealing.
Typical communist takeover scenario. First ruin everything and grab power without single idea what to do with this power. Germany just turned itself into Seattle Autonomous Zone. Marxist mess without ideas what to do next.
You are what you eat, as do you choke…. on what you voted for.
Germany has a steaming hot plate full.
Australia’s plate runneth over.
America has all you can eat, with fries and wants Moar.
Britain in sedated and happily delusional as they enjoy lumpy curry in the old dart.
2022 sees the entire clown show implode so fast all the crazy people get flushed down the “S” bend of history.
The 1% swing as they inspect the bulbs in the lamp posts.
Meanwhile the world is back on the Gold Standard. Everyone goes home to a debt free “new life,” and ignores what just happened, pretending….” I know nothing.”
Germany shuts down RT…what could they be thinking…
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2021/09/drifting-apart.html