From the Notebook posts were first published exclusively to my Patrons and are updated here.
This report from RT from last week is the kind of thing that feels like a press release from Russia. It’s to let everyone know that whatever happens next the Russians are prepared for it.
The key to understanding what’s happening here is the following:
Within the Eurasian Union, consisting of former Soviet republics Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, trade using foreign currencies such as the US dollar and Euro has dropped to around a quarter of transactions.
With Russia coming forward internally, capable now of building and supporting a commercial airplane industry, their relationships across central Asia and transacting in local currencies becomes a ‘rising tide lifts all boats’ situation with Russia as the central node.
This is the multi-polar world in microcosm, a central Asia trading independently of the West’s banking system. This is the essence of evading the dollar trap, building a stronger regional economy.
To that end Russia’s commitment to building a much bigger IT economy also bears noting. Today’s Press Review from Tass is quite a wealth of information.
According to Vedomosti, in the near future, the document will be submitted to the Prime Minister to be signed. According to IDC, in 2020 the volume of Russia’s IT market reached $24.18 bln. So, in 2024, if the plans of the Ministry of Digital Technologies are implemented, its volume will approach the $50 bln mark.
Couple this with the revolution happening in crypto, to bring banking and savings services to the unbanked, and I see a massive groundswell happening over the next ten years if this is allowed to continue.
Which is why, of course, it won’t be.
It’s why FOMC Chair Jerome Powell is out there trashing Bitcoin while capital flees the pronouncements of half-clueless/half-rapacious (a dangerous combination to say the least) central bankers.
What I’m worried about now is an all-out attempt to start a war in Ukraine which forces Russia’s hand there. It’s an election year in Russia. Putin’s handling of a crisis in the Donbass will be critical to what happens next. This is why the Navalny cult of personality they are desperate to create is so important.
Watch the headlines out of Ukraine carefully. They are becoming more and more disturbing with Turkish drones and artillery flooding the contact line between Ukraine and the Donbass. EU/Russian relations are now ‘officially’ at an ‘all-time low’ as they are with the U.S. after Biden’s ridiculous statement on ABC last week.
Herr Schwab of the World Economic Forum will not be denied until someone finally puts him in his place. His Great Reset must be obeyed. And the Russians are making very clear that they will keep preparing for the worst while hoping for the best. NATO will have to make the first move because Putin’s strategy is asymmetric.
I expect Erdogan in Turkey will act as the West’s proxy.
And, unfortunately, that ultimately means a sincere loss of potency in the U.S. military. In other words provocations won’t cut it, actions will and when, not if, Ukraine attacks later this year we’ll find out who’s bluffing whom. I don’t doubt our ability on the battlefield, I doubt our will to risk it against a major military power like Russia and Europe’s will to host the conflict.
In the meantime, foreign investment into Russia improves despite sanctions and threats (thanks, I think to capital flight from an intentionally dysfunctional Europe) which is building a much different financial foundation than the one built exclusively on oil and gas exports during the early years of Putin’s rule out of sheer necessity.
That is the path to evading the next phase of attack, diversifying trade and investment out of dollars and euros. As I talked about over the weekend, it looks to me the Fed is intentionally strengthening the dollar to foment global chaos.
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It all comes down to conditions, mud is not a good medium to attack in. The Banderist dream of a Op Storm. Turkey looks to weapons sales and showcasing the same tactics and maneuvers used in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Russians learned lessons in Syria and have studied the previously mentioned conflict. Regardless of what the plan is territory needs to be defended and/or captured. The side that can and has the ability to move heavy weapons is key. That requires firm land. That means probably late May or June if anything happens. Turkey is pushing it’s Merc into Ukraine, more then likely at a slow rate so as not to draw too much attention. Wagner Group is already there and being reinforced. The fact that Russia is now rushing to complete Nord Stream II, means they are aware of plans. I hope for everyone that the Ukraine gov isn’t that reckless. Both Oblasts fall into the Russian umbrella of action. The Russians made it rain Turkish drones in Syria when they’d had enough of Turkish actions, and a repeat may occur in Ukraine. It looks like the EU may not back this a Ukrainian offensive, mainly out of self-interest. The EU looks at the big picture and currently are in a good position, an attack may upset this position. No good can come from this. Once events begin control is impossible, that’s what realist acknowledge.
Hey, Tom, don’t hold back on the good news! :)) No, seriously, we can think of Putin what we want, but the level hatred of the US/European “elites” towards him is astounding. Maybe in some ways he out-Trumped Trump and they hate him for making Russia great again. Interesting times!
Putin is not one man orchestra like Donald. He built enormous state apparatus, loyal to Putin and Russia. So there is no ousting of Putin and when he is killed then Russian policy remains the same
On the other hand, there is huge opposition in Ukraine and Europe. Faith to the ” west ” is rapidly vanishing . Fear to Empire is the only thing what keeps Europe and Ukraine in line. Nobody in the Ukraine dreaming anymore to live like in Hollywood movie. They are not even scared. Few days ago huge anti lockdown rally happened there despite harsh repressions.
Ukraine and Turkey .are much closer to Central Europe, Russia and Central Asia so everybody knows what is going on down here. So I do not believe that Erdogan is that stupid that goes down with dying Empire. Even when he is, the Turkish Army takes him down.
My prediction is that it will plays out like 1991 in Soviet Union. After one last mad attempt to save the system everybody abandoning Empire.
I also believe that it is coming in fast. In 18th of august 1991 I and all other Soviet citizen went sleep with knowledge that Soviet Union may come down after decade or two.
Next morning we had tanks on the streets, then people went out, 3 days action and Soviet Union was gone.
Big things are like Titanic. They sink for a long time. But when the last drop of water comes in, then balance changes and collapse is very fast.
Actually nobody is trying to save the system. Elite having party in Dubai and other places instead of working to keep up the system. They just think that they can lock the people down and wait until they die.
As we see, this is not what is happening and they have no plan B.
Excellent comment. Thank you for sharing your experience. I get that same feeling, this is the last mad push by a dying oligarchy who knows no other way to operate. And then it all collapses around them.
It seems the USadmin double act of bluff and sanction isn’t getting the same audience it once enjoyed.
The success of Russia and China has been greatly enhanced by the idiot policies from kneejerkers in congress, who take their orders from secret societies. Perhaps the stupid US foreign policies are a blessing in disguise. The world was in need of an alternative payment system. It was probably long overdue.
It won’t be too long before China and Russia send a tsunami of dollars back to the US, via the Comex.
Mistah Dollar, he dead
And will soon be buried.
When that happens, the US will be a third world country overnight.
You said you didn’t have any doubt about the US military’s ability to perform on the battlefield. I do, and as an ex-soldier it pains me to come to that conclusion.
First of all, the US military is stretched much too thin. They are involved in a number of never-ending wars and that is horrible for morale. They are only able to keep from being slaughtered by profligate use of materiel. As I understand it, there is a critical shortage in bombs and artillery shells. There are also shortages in spare parts for equipment.
And even if there were no shortages, the Russians and the Chinese have hypersonic anti-ship missiles. The US has no defense against these missiles. That means all of our Navy are sitting ducks. This doesn’t even take into account the merchant marine, which has even less defense. Without ships, there is not resupply. And that means no war is possible — short of nuclear war.
We also have the Biden administration reshaping the military. Their number one priority is diversity and inclusion — particularly inclusion of “transsexuals.” The Biden administration is purging the military of those who do not agree that diversity, inclusion, and “transsexual rights” should be the military’s top priority. The Russians and the Chinese have demonstrated that their top priority for their militaries is fighting and winning wars. That is why they are rolling out advanced weapons systems while we roll out new maternity uniforms.
If the US goes to war with either country, our conventional forces are doomed. That might just lead to nuclear war.
Further to evading the dollar trap, and it seems Iran and China have just signed a 25-year Sino-Iranian Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. It’s been 5 years in the making, and included in the agreement is a provision that payment for oil going from Iran to China will bypass the US dollar.
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