Today I go into further detail on why i think Donald Trump’s decision to leave the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) is the likely spark that finally ignites the global sovereign debt crisis.
Across markets we are seeing technical breakouts or breakdowns as the U.S. dollar climbs off its near-term bottom and begins making a sharp climb higher. This is beginning to pressure both emerging market debt and the U.S. budget. While neither has reached crisis levels yet, it is the change in trend that is most important.
Because with the Fed raising rates, dollar liquidity dropping, foreign central banks selling U.S. debt locally and political uncertainty in Europe, everything is aligning with this big breakout in the price of oil thanks to the war footing of the U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Brace yourselves for a summer of chaos as the world markets test the limits of central banks already stretched to their policy maximums.
Will Trump Torch the Global Economy on the Bonfire of his Vanity?
Will Trump Pay the Price Needed to Get What He Wants from Iran?
U.S. Dollar is Rallying: Right on Schedule
Emerging Markets Hit with Biggest Outflows since 2016
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