Peace in Our Time? Only if America is “Agreement Capable”

Those who have followed this blog for the past year know that I feel Presidents Trump and Putin are working towards a Middle East Peace Agreement.  Brick by brick, day by day, the foundation for this agreement is being built

Last night’s nigh-historic statement by the South Korean National Security Adviser Chung Eui-yong is another piece of that foundation.  You can read the entire statement here, but I’ll highlight the important part:

“I told President Trump that in our meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said he is committed to denuclearization. Kim pledged that North Korea will refrain from any further nuclear or missile tests; he understands that the routine joint military exercises between the Republic of Korea and the United States must continue.  And he expressed his eagerness to meet President Trump as soon as possible.”

President Trump appreciated the briefing and said he would meet Kim Jong-un by May to achieve permanent denuclearization.”

This is the breakthrough that everyone was waiting for.  Once Trump gets involved in the negotiations, a deal will be made.  That’s his wheelhouse, making deals.  Everyone walks away a winner in their minds.

We can argue about the effectiveness of Trump’s sanctions until we are blue in the face. But the reality is that 1) Koreans no longer want separation and 2) North Korea is not the economic basket case we are constantly told it is in the media.

I remember meeting with Jim Rogers in 2015 at a conference and the two areas of the world he was most bullish on were Kazakhstan and North Korea.

Because North Korea, under Kim Jong-Un, is moving towards a more open society, not a closed one.  The sincere desire for reunification of the Korean peninsula, if only symbolically through a more open border, is the animating principle here.

And that only happens with a North Korea entering the modern world economy.

More Neocon Dreams Dashed

Neoconservative pipe dreams of encirclement of Russia and China to dominate and destroy them are ending.

Over the weekend chief Neocon “man-baby’ Lindsay Graham had his Madeline Albright moment saying that war with North Korea would be worth it to rid it of nuclear weapons.  The millions of dead Chinese, Japanese and Koreans that would result don’t matter because Americans wouldn’t die.

“All the damage that would come from a war would be worth it in terms of long-term stability and national security.” 

And they say Kim Jong-Un is crazy.

Now the good news is that Trump is far more rational than either Albright or Graham.

Solving North Korea’s drive towards nuclear weapons would be a major feather in Trump’s cap.  It would stop the braying of Democrats about his incompetence, or at least make their cries of such less resonant with rational people, i.e. most voters.

The neocons are waging global war against Russia, China and Iran, but primarily Russia.  Some believe it is the only way to secure Israel’s future.  Others are simply playing a bad game of RISK.

risk

But, the reality is that Israel’s security is a secondary benefit (which is why it goes along with this) of the larger plan of global geopolitical and economic domination that begins and ends with subjugating Russia.

Peace in the Middle East that begins with ending a nuclear weapons threat from North Korea would get Israel’s attention. If Trump pulls this off, along with his firm commitment to Israel, Israel can calm down as it would feel far more secure.

Now you know why Trump is moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem.  The goal is to break deadlocks which are all open wounds designed to create future flashpoints.

The Iran/Israel Reality Show

But,  would also solve another problem. As I’ve talked about multiple times, North Korea’s nuclear program is also Iran’s nuclear program.

As is the case with Iran’s ballistic missile program.

We’re not the only country that engages in outsourcing, by the way.

This is why solving North Korea helps to solve the Middle East.  Israel simply wants a secure future.  It can’t have that with a nuclear-armed Iran.  But, Iran wants to survive as well.

And it can’t do so with American troops building bases all around it and U.S. ships patrolling its coasts.

Taking North Korea’s nukes off the table, takes them off of Iran’s table as well.  The neocons have been in charge of foreign policy for months and it has resulted in more troops in both Syria and Afghanistan.

As well, it has brought us into direct conflict with Russia on multiple occasions and only Putin’s prudence and patience has kept us out of a full-fledged shooting war with Russia.

This is something that no sane person wants.

So, first you solve North Korean nukes and, by extension, you solve Iran’s nukes.  Assad’s forces continue winning in Syria, ousting ISIS from eastern Ghouta and near Deir Ezzor.

The Turks are straining the U.S./Kurdish relationship in the northern part of Syria. And Putin has Netanyahu cowed thanks to Syria shooting down an F-16I.  Do the math.

The neocon rodeo is becoming a clown show.

Are We Agreement Capable?

I always come back to Putin and his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who have said on multiple occasions that the U.S. is ‘not agreement capable.’  In diplomatic terms it means that negotiating with us is pointless because we do not keep to the agreements we sign.

And instead use the agreement as a stalling tactic to launch a new offensive in the near future.

By agreeing to talks with Kin Jong-Un Trump is doing what was always in the cards, backing off on direct conflict.  We were never going to attack North Korea.  Despite Lindsay Graham’s insanity, the cost would definitely outweigh the benefits.

The potential for war there to go global would be too high for any serious person to contemplate.  And Trump is no crazed war-monger.

Remember what Putin just unveiled at his State of the Union address.  Weapons that can nullify our military logistical superiority around the world.   The U.S. military power is in logistics.

So, don’t think for a moment that Trump is acting here out of strength.  Most of our military assets are, as of right now, sitting ducks.  Yes, they can do damage, but the risks of wipe out are incredibly high.

That’s the theatre part of this.  The reality is the neocon game is almost lost.

And humanity would be the winner.

Putin is happy to let Trump take the credit here, even though it is his hard work which brought us to this point.  By allowing Trump to take the lead Trump can firm up his domestic political support and marginalize the neocons in both parties.

But, that said, are we going to give up our drive to encircle China and Russia?  Does Trump have enough control over his intelligence and military command structure to abide by any agreement he signs?

Are the neocons on the run?  Or just playing ‘Possum?

Encirclement is why we still have troops in Japan and South Korea.  So, to be honest, I don’t know how far these talks go if the U.S. isn’t ready to pull the Seventh Fleet back from the South China Sea and/or remove our troops from the Korean Peninsula.

Because that’s exactly what Kim Jong-Un will want as a starting point for any discussions of giving up his nuclear weapons.

Given our recent history, if I was him I wouldn’t sign anything until I see troops packing up in the DMZ.  Then I’ll know Trump can deliver on whatever he promises.


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