Decertifying the Iran Nuclear Deal is simply the next step down the Neocons path to self-immolation and eventual U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East.
Donald Trump’s latest misadventure in foreign policy further underscores his complete submission to the neoconservatives in the U.S. government. Look no further than the preening by John McCain; using his last days on this earth to set the agenda as if he were President.
He’s not, but since Trump has a fake majority in the Senate, led by McCain and the rest of his neoconservative RINO cabal – Senators Murkowski, Graham and Collins – the Swamp can push through or block any legislation and set any policy they want.
As I’ve been telling you now for months, Trump finally submitted on foreign policy to them back in August. In exchange for that he’s been given the room to maneuver on domestic policy and have Steve Bannon conduct rearguard actions against the media, Hollywood and the DNC – but I repeat myself.
Now, with him following his own instincts, he decertified the JCPOA, otherwise known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, under pressure from those same neoconservatives that have him over a barrel.
I never said that the deal was a good one. Visions of Lando Calrissian flash through my head every time I discuss this subject.
But, this is where we are. Trump is right when he says that Iran is not honoring the ‘spirit of the deal.’ He knows that Iran and North Korea are tied at the hip with North Korea working on miniaturizing the nuclear weapon and Iran the ballistic missile.
We know this because Trump told us this recently. And both countries want these weapons to neuter the U.S.’s regime change plans. Since I believe Trump is serious about wanting a global reduction in nuclear weapons (who doesn’t?) this is a red line for him.
That’s why on this one point Trump will go along with the neocons willingly. But, it’s not going to work the way they want it to.
This goes to the McCain-Controlled-Senate. We know that outcome. The U.S. will unilaterally pull out of the deal.
Russia isn’t affected, short of the SWIFT Nuclear Option, which they are prepared for. China will likely follow Russia’s lead in ignoring the U.S. since they hold our financial future in their hands anyway. Jinping will be more pro-active after the Party Congress is over next week.
The big question is Europe. Germany wants an independent foreign policy from the U.S. Angela Merkel will not be able to sell subservience to the U.S. with her weakened position.
France’s Total just inked a $5+ billion-dollar oil E&P deal with Iran to develop the important South Pars gas field.
So, if Europe, already weakened by sanctions against Russia over Crimea, decides to go its own way here, the U.S. could find itself isolated.
That will only hasten the demise of U.S. influence in the Middle East, not enhance it.
Remember, McCain and company have been desperate to stop the Nordstream-2 pipeline into Germany. The Germans are signing oil and gas deals with Mexico’s Pemex now. The Green Energy revolution in Germany is ending because they realize, like everyone else, you can’t run a first world industrial economy on unreliable, low-density energy sources.
Transparent pressure on Iran to raise the price of oil for both the U.S. shale drillers and the Saudi Arabians, who just genuflected to Russia just last week will not be enough to change the dynamic here.
If the EU knuckles under here, expect continental political unrest to boil over in 2018. Remember, the U.S. just declared financial war on everyone with Trump’s U.N. Speech.
The big ‘winner’ here is Israel, obviously. But, this win is a sign of desperation not strength. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a tenuous hold on power. Trump’s announcement yesterday was practically word-for-word a recitation of Netanyahu’s U.N. speech and an example of his extreme paranoia.
In declaring the Iranian Republican Guard (IRGC) terrorists and sanctioning them, Trump has actually played right into his enemies’ hands in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.
First, sanctions never work. The IRGC will be fully functional. The gloves can come off east of the Euphrates River. Now the tenuous position of the Syrian Defense Forces, i.e. YPG Kurds, and their U.S. ‘advisors’ can be exposed.
Remember, Turkey is itching to attack from the north.
Up to this point both Russia and the U.S. have tried to stay out of each other’s way in Syria. But, the playing field has shrunk now to the point where that is no longer possible.
Any shielding of ISIS by the U.S. and the Kurds will end now. And direct conflict will be the result.
This is why Secretaries of Defense and State Mattis and Tillerson were dead-set against decertification. Mattis knows he doesn’t have operational control in Syria, not with Turkey fully in Putin’s orbit.
Second, Iran has nothing to lose now by sending our boys back in body bags. Moreover, it has even less reason not to increase support of both Hamas and Hezbollah. Netanyahu is putting Israel in extreme danger here.
The U.S. electorate didn’t sign on for an escalation of Afghanistan. It’s not going to okay an expansion of hostilities in Syria for Israel’s benefit. Every day it becomes more obvious to everyone, especially at the U.N., that the U.S. is covering for ISIS and Ambassador Nikki Haley is running her own foreign policy division.
Trump’s show of strength here is a bluff. No rational person wants a war with Iran. Most Americans don’t understand this situation at all. Trump will have the base’s support initially. He’ll castigate Europe for not backing us up.
That’ll play well to the geopolitically unsophisticated. But, if the bodies pile up and calls for militarism rise, an America sick of war will remember why they voted for Trump in the first place and this adventure will end.
Like I said last week, this move is simply the limit of Trump’s “Art of the Deal” style of negotiating. With the U.S. as good as out of this deal, the real negotiations can begin. Trump’s art is all about brinksmanship. He’s up against people who don’t bluff, however.
And they don’t believe him to be ‘agreement capable.’ So, the only deal on the table is actually no deal at all until the threat of U.S. military intervention is gone.
And that’s not going to change until we demand it to.