It is increasingly clear the global economy is slowing down. And a few months ago the epicenter for that slowdown was Turkey. The Turkish Lira melted down as fears over its massive pile of corporate debt, most of it denominated in dollars, began selling off. And that had contagion effects into Europe since yield-starved banks … Continue reading Revisiting Turkey’s Debt Problem
The "Gypsum Lady" Theresa May has no intention of staying strong on Brexit negotiations. Her job was always to deliver a Brexit deal that was, in effect, no deal. She was to thread the needle that kept the U.K. in the European Union for everything that matters, the customs and trade unions, while selling the … Continue reading Brexit Breakdown is All Theatre
The Turkish Lira crisis is fundamentally different than the Russian Ruble crisis of 2014/15. This one has contagion risk. Back then no one was worried about the fall of the ruble having spillover effect. If Sberbank failed, it wouldn't jump to Europe. Then again, there was little worry about that since the Russians had more … Continue reading Lira Collapse To Jump the Mediterranean
President Trump is using all of his financial weapons in his trade war. China is as well. And since the crisis in the Turkish Lira broke out a few months ago, I expected to see China to move to counter the intense dollar diplomacy Trump is engaging in. The devaluation of the Yuan was serious … Continue reading China Hits Trump Back As Trade War Escalates
One man’s toxic waste is another man’s golden goose. A new round of economic sanctions imposed on Russia last month by the U.S. is creating havoc in investment circles. A recent article by Ben Aris at Russia Insider describes Russian debt assets as ‘toxic waste again.’ That doesn’t mean these Russian debt assets actually are … Continue reading Are Russian Bonds Toxic Waste or Golden Eggs?