This week’s events in Kazakhstan are not surprising.
Less than one week before a major summit between the United states NATO and Russia over the security architecture of Eastern Europe, we’re treated to another failed color revolution in the most strategically important place along Russia’s southern border.
There was looting, horrific violence and former government buildings, the ultimate symbols of power, set on fire.
What may have been surprising was how quickly Russia and Kazakh’s President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev invoked the CSTO to come in and stop the nonsense. But, if it didn’t happen this way the consequences for Russia and the rest of Asia would have been catastrophic.
Kazakhstan is simply too big and too important for Russia to even consider allowing to fall back into the hands of someone like Nursultan Nasarbaev, a true post-Soviet meglomaniac, Russophobe and self-interested jackass whose double dealings with the West are just shy of those by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
This article by Fyodor Lukyanov, brings up a lot of good points about what this intervention means for the future and I highly recommend it. But what’s most important now is that this was a stiff message to Washington, London and Brussels.
Get out of Central Asia and stay out. Russia is now in control of the Heartland.
The situation is complicated.
While Nazarbayev resigned from power in 2019 he hadn’t really left the room. Alexander Mercouris noted the other day that Nazarbaev still controlled the Security Council in Kazakhstan. So, there was this weird power sharing arrangement in place, which apparently began to break down.
This is the key to understanding what’s happened so far.
This morning Reuters is reporting that the head of Kazakhstan’s intelligence services, Karim Massimov, has been arrested and charged with treason.
Who is Massimov and why is he important to the bigger picture? This one from the NY Post is worth a lot more than a thousand words:
So, just in case anyone was confused about the idea that there could be some outside motivations for taking Kazakhstan away from Russia, I thought it good to get some things out in the open.
But, back to the future. The security council in Kazakhstan controls the military. Therefore, Nasarbaev controlled he military. When the protests began on Tuesday, January 4th, the military was frozen having not been given any orders.
Coincidence? Of course not.
Now what have I said a hundred times on this blog?
“Spooks start civil wars, but militaries end them.”
If the military was sidelined without orders than that would be the main way to assist the spook operation on the ground to create havoc and potentially spark a wider political crisis which the military wouldn’t be able to deal with effectively, plunging the country potentially into some kind of failed state/civil war.
However, that situation isn’t sustainable unless all the institutions of government was simultaneously paralyzed.
By Thursday morning Tokayev announced control of the Security Council and he immediately deployed the military. Having prevailed there, after that he could invoke the CSTO to help intervene and stabilize the situation.
By doing this and quickly gaining control of the Kazakh military, Tokayev quickly put to rest the main thrust of the uprising and forced Nasarbaev, reportedly, out of the country.
Nasarbaev has been a thorn in Russia’s side for decades, like Lukashenko in Belarus, courting the West to play them off of Russia. This uprising, in my mind, doesn’t get as far as it did without him sitting on his hands, since he controlled the military.
Blaming any of this on a doubling of LPG prices – Liquefied Petroleum Gas – is typical MI6/CIA misdirection. Buried in Pepe Escobar’s latest piece on Zerohedge is some of the reality on the ground since the foundation for the uprising was already laid.
But, as always, Pepe can’t help himself to a heaping of silly Euro-leftism with his digs at capitalism.
The reason is – what else – unbridled neoliberalism and the proverbial free market shenanigans. Since 2019 liquefied gas is electronically traded in Kazakhstan. So keeping price caps – a decades-long custom – soon became impossible, as producers were constantly faced with selling their product below cost as consumption skyrocketed.
Seriously, the price went from 8 rubles/liter (or $0.40/gallon) to 20 rubles/liter ($1.00/gallon) and this was supposed to be the match that lights all of Kazakhstan on fire?
Please, give it a rest.
Yes, price controls are stupid. Yes, they create unsustainable expectations in the minds of consumers. But, by all accounts the Kazakh government warned people that this was gong to happen, so the people knew what was coming.
Unrest? Sure. Some anger? Absolutely. But a full-blown Marxist-rhetoric tinged revolution with typically insane demands? Again, please, spare me the 3rd grade analysis. Events of this magnitude mean we all must step up our game past our own ideological biases, including mine.
The question no one seems to want to ask is, “Why would they go from full subsidy to no subsidy overnight, timed with the latest Summit between Russia and the West?”
I sincerely doubt it wasn’t to right some terrible violation of free market principles.
It was much more likely to get the most color revolution bang for the buck (per liter) by shocking the people.
This implies strongly that Nasarbaev and outside forces were behind the fuel subsidy changes, because anyone involved in responsible governing would have rolled them back, say 10% per month until a market price was established allowing people to adjust gradually.
This fact alone tells you there was a much bigger game afoot here.
So, with these things established this is what I think has happened and how it will be used by all involved.
First, I don’t think for a minute that Putin and his staff were unaware of whatever operation was afoot. It would be folly to think that Putin today wouldn’t want to rid himself of another ex-Soviet strongman he’s not been able to remove or subjugate. There have been thoughtful suggestions that it was his influence that forced Nasarbaev out of the Presidential palace in the first place in 2019.
I don’t seem to recall anyone from the Kremlin shedding a tear about the change in power in Astana.
It seems obvious to me that Nasarbaev tried to bait and switch — to leave power nominally, but control all the major levers of power. Leaving him a kind of sleeper to be activated for whoever paid him the most. This would leave his replacement, Tokayev, holding the bag when the timing was right.
Think about what Tokayev did first this week after the fighting started. He gave the protestors what they wanted, disbanding the government, and reinstated the LPG subsidies. That isolates the late-comers and the uncommitted from the foreign-led agitators and operators.
That the fighting continued afterwards also tells you a lot.
The Europeans and Americans are not honest brokers Lukashenko got the message in 2020, he has no future without Russia. He also learned he isn’t as powerful or skilled at this game as he thought he was.
Nasaebaev, apparently, never did.
So, I can see Putin gaming this out to wait for MI6/CIA to make their move and pounce on the fulcrum of the rebellion – a sidelined military – as quickly as possible. That way everyone’s motivations and loyalties are brought into the open and the situation quickly brought under control.
This is the #winning part for Russia.
Second, unfortunately, the losing part for them is how the West will spin this going into next week. This was another operation designed to lose on the ground but win politically. Because now the endless virtue signaling commences that Russia is really still in charge in all of the old USSR. All of these new organizations – the EAEU, CSTO, SCO, etc. – are just thin cover for a vast Putin-led dictatorship.
This is why the U.S./EU/NATO cannot allow him to dictate terms over Ukraine or anything else (including where he puts his troops within his own borders). It’s also why NATO is now, more than ever, necessary to contain him.
You can see the story a mile away now. That story is uniquely neoconservative, and it serves the interests of those fiefdoms staring at an existential crisis, as I talked about in my last article, if talks in Geneva go the way they should.
The speed with which this revolt was put down tells you two things:
1) It was poorly and hastily planned even if Nasarbaev was effectively a sleeper agent.
2) It was never intended to effect regime change in Kakakhstan, but to be the final poison pill for Russian/Western relations per Davos’ desires.
Kazakhstan was likely the last big operation of this Neocon remnant within U.S. and/or British bureaucracies to keep the Trotsky dream alive and the Davos coalition from splintering further. I told you these are both cornered animals, facing similar but different existential threats. They will not go down without a fight.
It looks like they took their shot here, but it failed. More bloody than the Bay of Fat Pigs in Venezuela a few years ago under Pompeo and Trump, but a failure nonetheless.
The Russians have now successfully countered the last four color revolutions attempted on its border regions. Kazakhstan was the big one. Putin learned his lesson with Yanukovich and Ukraine in 2013/14. Don’t let this fester, nip it in the bud quickly.
But at the same time, without the failure in Ukraine, people like Tokayev and Lukashenko never fully get the message about the West’s intentions for them. They have to experience the betrayal personally to believe it.
There’s a lesson there for COVID-19 ninnies if they are listening.
So, sometimes you have to lose a battle to win the larger war.
Whether you want to see this in terms of Russian cauldron strategy or not is your prerogative. I believe Putin saw Syria in these terms, a place where the West over-extended itself to be counter-attacked ruthlessly exposing its hypocrisy and responsibility for the situation.
When the UK Parliament refused Prime Minister David Cameron’s request to join Obama in Syria, I think Putin saw the beginnings of his opportunity to take action on the wider stage.
The same thing was at play here with Kazakhstan and the CSTO. This was the opportunity to counter a hastily-prepared operation smartly while announcing to the world that Russia is not alone out there nor are they so weak they cannot come to the aid of an important ally at every level — politically, economically, culturally and strategically.
Kazakhstan fits that bill perfectly.
They can now leverage these organizations to end the era of Color Revolutions on its soft underbelly and strengthen the entire Asian continent.
It’s quite a big moment when you think of it in those terms. It means the final nail in the coffin of Mackinder’s Heartland strategy for NATO. It means there is no leverage left and the time for honest negotiations can begin.
It has huge implications for next week’s talks in Geneva over Ukraine. No amount of narrative control will overcome the reality on the ground. That’s what will ultimately break the Neocons and Davos. It’s what can begin to bring sanity to this world gone mad.
This is a fire in the minds of the powerful and insane that so needed putting out.
Join my Patreon if you like stamping out fires
Well done Tom. It will be interesting to see the rat bastards’ next move.
Well done indeed. I always feel I am a month or more ahead of the news when I read Tom’s blog:
Turkey striving for rapid de-dollarization
Tom called that 3 weeks ago!
Once again, it’s excellent analysis if we assume that everyone is just playing the Great Game.
But if the Davosians are not merely playing for a resurgent European Empire but are trying to establish themselves as global governors, then this analysis will be, once again, a little off.
I would argue that all these provocations are primarily the Davosians using their pet imbeciles in the West to force Putin to make a choice.
a) Take your seat at the global governance table and see all these problems end
b) Keep fighting and find yourself framed for our imminent crisis event
But yes of course they use the desires of the Western imbeciles to manipulate them into action, telling them that they stand to win oil or gas or narrow geopolitical advantage.
The talks next week ARE crucial – you presumably think that Putin will face down his enemies. Whereas I believe that if he fails to capitulate (and yes they would put a nice spin on it to save his face, so if he agrees he will probably be presented as the Gorbachevian architect of Perestroika 2.0) then in short order we will see whatever fake cyberattack the IMF are planning.
And Putin will be the patsy
P.S – I note the head of the British Armed Forces was seeding stories today of Russian subs cutting internet cables.
You will be wrong. They have nothing on him and China is too strong. Davos is dying Ivor
I desperately want you to be right – nothing would make me happier than watching George Soros perpwalked, or Klaus Schwab globally ridiculed.
What should we expect from the talks if Davos is as impotent as you say?
First, You are never going to see Soros perpwalked. Nor will you ever see Schwab clasped in irons and tried under the Nuremberg Code.
You will never get that kind of discrete validation. Looking for it is a fool’s game and blinds you to what has been happening.
Davos isn’t impotent either…. I’ve never said this. Your rhetoric is too reductionist into concrete black v. white outcomes.
Davos is still incredibly powerful… but everytime it deploys that power and doesn’t get the results it expected, it’s a net loss of potency over time.
Attrition is a tough game to watch, but that is what is happening. Putin has no option here but to draw unassailable redlines while the US tries to look tough while backing down.
It’s a dangerous game but it’s either nuclear war or someone loses face. Russia cannot afford to lose anymore. They just won Kazakhstan for the next century. Ukraine is next.
Read this bit of fantasy and you’ll see what I’m talking about.
This is what passes for high level advice from the US’s best and brightest. It’s literal garbage.
If Biden puts on the sanctions he’s talking about, energy stops flowing around the world tomorrow. Russia can handle this. The US cannot. The US Navy winds up at the bottom of the ocean. Davos loses everything, because they will be bombed.
Understood. You think Putin won’t back down.
Are you predicting that when he doesn’t, the Davosians can’t or won’t launch CyberTonkin? Or simply that they will, but it will fail to achieve their goals?
I dont think they’ll do that either. It’s suicide. This is all chest beating before the US pulls out of Ukraine
Davos can’t have war in Europe or they fail completely. The entire architecture of Europe will collapse.
They will fail but will destroy millions in the process. I’m not saying it won’t be bloody. It will, very. But all things are cyclic. And this cycle if power is just about peaked
The BBC are reporting a cyberattack on Ukrainian government assets.
Has Russian fingerprints all over it.
Because the Davosians put them there.
Large scale cyber event in 3…..2………..
How do you interpret these visiting Senators, and talk of Biden going to Ukraine?
Presumably just as chest-beating – the final desperate throw of the dice by an impotent administration?
Of course I view it as placing expendable assets in harms’ way. What reaction now if the Davosians can activate a patsy?
…There’s a lesson there for COVID-19 ninnies if they are listening.
So, sometimes you have to lose a battle to win the larger war….
Who are these ninnies? Please elaborate?
Thank you for this excellent analysis with interesting background.
I believe the efforts are aimed at a new division into 2 new power blocs. Only in this way is US domination (at least in the western bloc) still possible. Otherwise, the US will inevitably lose more and more power to Asian players. Europe will only play a small, insignificant role, at most as a battlefield.
There was a CIA op back in 2014-2015 in China. In hindsight, CIA sources admitted the op would have been a minor win if it had succeeded. It was a spectacular failure that resulted in CIA agents in China losing their diplomatic status and being deported, while hundreds of CIA “assets” (aka human beings who provided CIA with info) were rounded up by Chinese authorities. Almost overnight, the CIA went from dozens of agents in China working hundreds of assets — to not having a single source. The op failed, but more critically it exposed the CIA’s entire network.
Of course, there is a good chance many agents / assets had been exposed before hand, but many more were exposed when the op failed. Over the next couple months, additional assets were exposed (and/or China knew about them all along) and China rounded them up too.
Its hard to imagine a scenario in which the GRU didn’t know about this Kazakhstan stupidity months in advance. The players were known years in advance. The NY Post has a picture of the Bidens posing after collecting another bribe years ago.
It seems like Russia was just waiting for CIA/MI6 assets to expose themselves before they tightened the noose. Obama’s foreign policy team is inept, and having a dementia patient in command certainly didn’t help. That the Bidens are both on the take only made things worse.
Kazakhstan also borders on the Uigher section of China, and one can be sure the Chinese anxious to thwart CIA meddling among Uighers — so China will back Russia and Kazakhstan in all international forums. Chances are the CIA agents / assets in Kazakhstan have knowledge of the same across the border inside China.
Putin has been playing the spy game his entire life. Biden is a dimwitted crook who took bribes his whole life. Even without Obama’s foreign policy team “helping”, Biden was always going to lose.
Nice one. Makes a lot of sense.
Still think America has gone nuts. The US military is the unspoken wild card. Don’t think they will tolerate nuke war from professionals. The Great Trump Korean Amanda kept on sailing on its own sweet way. Trump be dammed or just ignored. Korean nukes ain’t like Russian nukes. As Bush jnr said, “time to swing the big dick.” Putins got a big’un and China will use the big chop stick forsure.
Well, Biden barely knows where he is, but even his handlers (Washington Generals in both senses of the words) are just Western imbeciles being weaponized by globalists.
Putin realizes that the globalists behind them are his real enemy – the question is whether he can elude their grasp.
When I first heard the dead were these professional trouble makers from other countries, I knew it was a failed OP. There are many little points to note. Here are an unorganized few. Joe Senile did not plan anything for one. Someone knew many of these trouble makers or they were so obvious, sorta like Congressman Getz and Congresswoman Greene showed on video yesterday, who the paid bad people not being prosecuted by the DOJ really were on January 6, 2021! Stooges, no doubt who did not get shot like the same stooges in Kaz land.
My bottom line is I certainly hope the Davosians (cute) fail further in their global takeover.
And if I understood Commenter Hamlin above correctly, then for her and us the unraveling is happening slowly at first then faster, right now. And the truth about the Covid Plot is coming home to be written about and it may be a really bad scene. But it will be seen!
I find it hilarious how many Americans are total russophiles, with antiNATO retorics, but are unwilling to move to Russia or some other nonNATO country. No, they want the benefits of a free world and still be able to perpetuate their proRussia narrative.
Well excuse me for identifying my government as rogue and treasonous to our Constitution and recognizing we have no reason to be poking the Bear. Russia is not the Soviet Union. The people of Russia and Heritage Americans have most things in common. We should be allies, not adversaries. Get DC out of the way and you’d see that happen. It’s the Globalists who are the problem and the US government has been captured by them. I admire Vladimir Putin and wish all Russia well. So I guess I’m one of your ‘Russophiles’. Thing is, I love America (not our government) and will fight until we get our Republic back and make peace with our Russian brothers..
I think we can much further.
As we stand, all national and supranational government everywhere is the enemy of all peoples everywhere.
Why would I leave my country because a bunch of idots have temporary taken over.
@Nordcape — many Americans love our country but hate Washington DC.
Many people find your blind obedience to the Dementia Fuhrer to be offensive. Just because Biden orders you to round up people into concentration camps because they won’t take an experimental shot doesn’t mean you must follow those orders. Its really offensive that anyone would still make that argument after Nuremberg.
Kazakhstan unfortunately still runs on bribes. Many Kazaks might wish that would change, but for now they have to play the hand they were dealt.
But F Joe Biden and his drug addict son for trying to normalize bribery in the USA. And while we are on the subject, F people who try to excuse his behavior or claim we have to support bribes to Hunter out of ???patriotism??? Man. you have lost your mind as well as your ethics.
If you want to get triggered over something, get angry that the USA is being run by unelected bureaucrats reporting to a dementia patient who spent his entire life soliciting bribes.
Look on the bright side, “American Can Do business,” is alive and well. An American chick has been selling her farts in jars. She made $200,000 bucks. Consult RT for more info. Only what I have heard. Don’t read RT. But sounds like America today. There could be money in goat farts, who knows, just from advertise babe with one big boob 8 nipples.
@Ronnie — between Hollywood, Bill Gates and the employees of CNN, the USA has its share of perverts.
If your wife is OK with you raiding your kids college fund to buy farts in a jar, you are only harming your kids and your marriage.
The thugs in Washington DC are harming everyone in the country. Living it up off our tax dollars. And I’m sure that Congress engages in acts of perversion that rival Hollywood.
If you ask people in Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Ukraine (and plenty of other places) — the US government destroys lives all over the world, not just in the USA.
Imagine being an Afghani, risking your life and your family’s safety to give intel to US forces — only for Biden to drone you and your kids as he flees. That’s Uncle Sam loyalty for ya.
Imagine being a US soldier, risking your life for your country only to come home and be continuously neglected by the VA hospital system… and then reading all the left wingers who want the government to control all health care.
Sorry, but farts in a jar are stupid but they don’t cause anything like the harm the federal government causes
One of the first people arrested in the Kazakhstan insurrection (for treason) is the guy standing immediately next to Biden in that photo. In addition to collecting and collating bribes for the Bidens, Massimov is the former head of intelligence for the anti-Russia oligarchs within Kazakhstan.
So there is a 6yr old photo of Hunter and Dementia Joe standing next to one of the Kazak coup leaders. Does anyone think this photo won’t be exhibit A at the upcoming Russia – NATO meeting?
In addition to all sorts of evidence that the Obama foreign policy team instigated the coup in Ukraine (lets keep Victoria Nuland’s “F Europe” comment under wraps OK?) — now western Europe has to explain why the Biden’s were photographed taking bribes from another trouble spot.
“The US” was never interested in Ukraine. It was Soros wanting to control natgas supplies into Europe, and a corrupt and inept Obama foreign policy team. The Bidens flew over and threatened to withhold a billion dollars of US taxpayer money if Bursimma didn’t cut Hunter in for hundreds of thousands in bribe money.
Bunch of half-wits risking everything for $600K a year in kickbacks. If they were smart crooks, the Biden’s would have made $30 million a year insider trading like Nancy Pelosi.
Next, look for McConnell and Schumer to look the other way on both bribes and insider trading. They will both ask “Why not borrow another few trillion to spend on our offices?” Our grand-kids will get stuck with the bill!!!
Russia will keep the eastern third of Ukraine. The old natgas pipelines through Ukraine will fall into disrepair, and Germany will be forced to approve Nordstream to avoid collapse. Kazakhstan will get a pro-Russian oligarch. The Bidens will not be getting any more bribe money from FSU countries, and there isn’t a thing Dementia Joe can do about it.
Americans need to stay focused on overcoming the tyranny of unelected bureaucrats here at home. We have no time or resources to dedicate to a Russian satellite state halfway around the world, and with tens of trillions in debt we can’t afford to be involved anyway. Fck Joe Biden and Fck Washington DC. God help America outside the beltway, we need all the help we can get
I suspect that this operation, probably grandiosely monikered something like “Operation Eviscerate”, has turned into Operation Belly-Flop, and the trunks are getting sucked down the filtration flue. Judging by Blinken’s limp declamation by rote, and Stoltenberg’s crestfallen ‘where is the cynanide pill?’ epitaph shuffle on stage, this is a serious disaster. One wonders if all the agitation east and west was a smokescreen for this operation……
Hi Tom. What does the post-summit arrangements and Putin’s established supremacy mean for Armenia and Pashinyan? Is he next to surrender to Putin? Thanks.
Pashinyan is a Davos implant in Armenia. It was he who, like Nasarbaev, set the stage for the Azeri/Turk invasion of Nagorno/Karabakh. Pashinyan has only survived by the skin of his teeth after he was abandoned by the West during the resultant uprising against him b/c of his passivity during the N/K fighting.
He’ll either bend the knee or be replaced.
Surprise, Surprise… who knew…military funded bio lab in Kaz…
There will never be a global government as proposed by the Davos plan because the policies they advocate are not working especially green energy.
While US states like CA , WA and NY might try their best to adhere the the reset with their Democrat legislatures they are in the minority of states.
The republicans are unified against the Biden regime and the red states will simply ignore any reset agenda
The thesis that the reset is now fracturing into a smaller EU centric zone seems correct.
Will it survive in this diminished configuration?
Sure, various factions will survive… this is why Davos is splintering… enlightened self interest of the members of the group.
It’s not a monolith. Which ones will survive will depend on how things shake out. I’m making no predictions there. Too fluid.
Thank you, Mr. Luango.
Not ‘sounding’ too good from Stoltenburg just now. He skirted Russia’s issues and made mention of “other things” they could possibly get into agreement with.
Nothing, as yet, posted from Russia representatives.
Interesting. See date submitted, and, Section 104, (designate President Putin as personna non grata, backer of terrorists/terrorism)
Fresh off the humiliating loss in Kazakhstan, the Obama foreign policy team decided to try their hands at constraining China in the South China Sea.
China continues to build military facilities on various atolls and reefs. They continue to build out their navy, which will soon have more ships* than the US navy. That asterisk is because 100% of Chinese ships operate in the western pacific, while the US navy is spread all over the globe. In the next 10 years, China’s navy is projected to outnumber US ships in absolute terms (world wide) — but Chinese ships will still be concentrated in the western pacific while a smaller number of US ships are spread around the world. The US government is running massive deficit spending and almost certainly needs to cut spending; an increase in navy ships is simply not feasible.
The Obama foreign policy team responded by writing a research paper.
You read that correctly. China is building a navy and occupying nearby atolls and reefs, and the Obama team wrote a long winded research paper.
And on 6-January, the (allegedly) most powerful government on Earth wet its pants (again) over some morons in silly costumes who walked through open doors into the capital building. The intruders had no food, no weapons, no crow bars or other means to break through doors — all they had were ridiculous costumes. A terrified Capital hill police guy shot and killed one of the idiots, most of the capital police just let the crowd in unobstructed. Nothing else happened, nor could it considering the crowd had zero equipment. But a year later, the global super power government is still acting terrified.
This might be riling up the left wing extremists against Trump (who supposedly isnt even President). But constantly wetting their pants over nonsense is sending a message to Putin and Xi and Kim and Iran that the US government is terrified at some weirdos in silly costumes.
What would Washington DC do if they were up against an actual adversary? Say the Taliban or Iraqi / Syrian fighters? And how fast would the US government capitulate if they went up against a peer adversary?
The Jan 6th cry-fest told Russia and China that the US is scared to death over nonsense. Russia and China are free to do whatever they want.
Worst case, Washington will write a stupid research paper!!! Oh no! Not a research paper!! Anything but that!
Then Washington will beg the Chinese to finance more debt spending.
IvorDeacon…several years ago from Wired, but now Blinken saying same thing…
Ho. Hum. Another day. Another false flag…
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