I don’t think anyone would disagree that 2020 was a difficult year. 2021, in my view, will be worse along a number of vectors. This week I give you 7 predictions, some specific, some general, about where we are headed and why.
Bottom line watch the crypto-space carefully and for politicians to have eyes in the backs of their heads.
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Previous Episodes:
Podcast Episode #62 — Jim Jatras and the Big Question Facing Post-Trump Americans
Podcast Episode #61 – James Howard Kunstler and the Limits of Fraud and the Great Reset
Podcast Episode #60 – Crypto Rich and How Privacy Coins Thwart the Great Reset
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I agree with everything except your surprise at the election results. Institutional America did everything possible, with no holds barred, to make sure what they called a mistake (DT) would never happen again. With all the engineered messaging, unlimited financing, collective fear n2, I suspect the Republic is dead insofar as the institutional powers go. The only thing I find intriguing, say from a social psychology perspective, is just how many people bought into the engineered messaging over the last year, believing entirely that the truth in its entirely is located within the Democratic party as we have come to know it. That demonizing DT and his followers is a sign of True Progress. Regardless of their intellect, experience, status, they are children of what I call the Church of Many Zeros,. Evidently the Holy Scriptures of that Church, propagated across society in various local “parishes” with all their socially diverse acolytes and spokespersons, have sealed their minds. There is absolutely nothing to talk about on the merits, except maybe potato prices, as they know. Somewhere though, my intuition tells me that the Ministry of Zeros will get screwed up, or will screw things up and they will run out of them (zeros) in their plans to re-engineer realities.
Bitcoin and the other traceable coins have mostly been co-opted. That is why you are now seeing involvement by large investment vehicles – mainstream.
Obviously there will now be a change the the meme’s you see in the media too. Much more supportive, so Bitcoin will not be harpooned.
But Bitcoin can not function as a day to day currency simply because of the limited transaction capacity. It will become impractical for transferring small value too – transaction fees become too high for such transfers to make sense. But it becomes a very useful system for large organisations to transfer large amounts and avoid third party systems like SWIFT. The fact that there is no privacy for these transfers does not bother the corporate level actors. They use assorted legal systems and structures (and political donations) to protect themselves from government actions.
So Bitcoin is becoming a useful currency system for the ultra wealthy.
And inevitably, once they learn that the blockchain strategy works, they will also (gradually) learn that the same system PLUS privacy already exists. The time frame for that? Controlled by human nature. And for the whole Davos tribe to gradually absorb that knowledge, they have to use up some of their party time to do the self education. My guess – about a decade.
The likely extra choice that will be embraced is Monero (XMR) – already the market leader for privacy oriented cryptos and likely to stay that way. Its USD/XMR exchange is not likely to explode as far as Bitcoin, because Bitcoin has first mover in the ‘no trusted third party’ attribute and that will not change. Monero is the leader in the ‘all transactions are private’ attribute, and also has other attributes to differentiate itself from Bitcoin. These attributes (more subtle monetary policy, stronger long term transaction security, uncensorable, dynamically adjusting transaction capacity to name a few) take quite a while to understand and appreciate.